Speculation: Avionics in 5-10 Years?

[Michael White]

Originally Posted by aerhed

I think it's an open question because within ten years we are certain to have flying cars. That's what they say.

Moller swears he'll have his Skycar flying before then...

[bird]

Sorry Dave ugh I mean Moose, I can not do that.

Bird

[Bill_H]

In the OP I mentioned Flying Magazines online from 10 years ago. One I was looking at had a sleek flying car ad for a "Aerospectives taero 4000." Website defunct, no info available from a quick search. Ever hear of it?

[Bugsy]

1. I'll have to go thru TSA airport security each time I want to get to my hanger to drive a few rivets.
2. My ipad screen will be bright enough to see the synthetic view depicting a lifelike view of the ground
3. I'll have to align my cranium for 30 sec prior to taxi so that the HUD and glasses depict a properly aligned display
4. My intercom will use 3 D steriopsis to remind me to pull carb heat on my 1950 designed O360
5. Advertisements for my top most frequently purchased items will play on the EFIS each time I fly near a Walmart.
6. A notice will display on my screen as I listen to ATIS asking me for my iTunes password and whether I authorize the payment of $1.99 to the FAA for the pending landing.

[DaleB]

Paul, I think you may be closest to the mark, and that really bothers me.

[the_other_dougreeves]

Originally Posted by DaleB

I have yet to see a voice control implementation that does not suck in devious and infuriating ways. Those could be dangerous in an aircraft. It would have to work a LOT better than the system in my truck, in my wife's car, on my phone or on those of 9 out of 10 people who use their voice-activated phones (yes, iThingies too) to send nearly incomprehensible text messages and emails.

Well, just remember how bad touch screen smart phones were 10 years ago. Oh, wait, there weren't any. Its hard to believe the iPhone came out in summer 2007 - 6 years ago. So is it far out to think that decent voice recognition can be made great in a few years?

Voice recognition can be done really awfully, but then so are a lot of the UIs in modern cars (Hello, Acura, are your designers competing to see who can get 100+ buttons on the dash first?).

When its done right, its great. The key is to (1) get the recognition right and (2) design a system that gives you a readback AND displays the new inputs on the screen so you can detect and correct it if its wrong.

TODR

[6 Gun]

The biggest change in avionics will come with automation of airplanes that fly themselves like drones and you will have to get OK from TSA to go around the patch in Ten Buck Too and if you try to buzz your buddys house the TSA will push a button and your plane will auto land at the nearest airport with TSA cops and they will arrest you.
Bob

[rmartingt]

My guesses:

+ A "reasonably affordable" ($2-3k or so) ADS-B out solution with essentially blanket approval for all airplanes (because there has to be some way to get all those certified aircraft 2020 compliant). This would be a standalone unit that replaces your transponder and has the TSO GPS (no database, just position) and Mode S built in.

+ Another HUD or two for experimental aircraft, not based on Google Glasses but rather a more traditional combiner setup. This would push prices down a little bit, I think.

+ I'm hoping for a more affordable LPV-capable GPS by the time I'm ready for one. Right now the cheapest ones seem to be $6k; and the big G has a lock on the whole market.

+ One or two companies might be offering some kind of EVS camera that you could either feed to a dedicated screen or pipe into an EFIS (I think Dynon has mentioned they will have video-in capability at some point).

+ Highway-in-the-Sky guidance based on selected NAV/GPS flightplan or approach guidance.

+ FADEC-like units for fuel-injected engines. We're close with things like EFII, but I'm thinking something with no mixture control at all--just throttle and (if equipped) prop.


I think a big driver in all this will be whether the FAA adopts its ARC's Part 23 recommendations (which among other things propose a "non-commercial" category for light aircraft like Canada's owner-maintained program, and relaxation of the requirements for installing new equipment under the justification that the added safety benefits of, say, a Skyview or G3X, or AOA system, greatly outweigh the risk from it being non-certified and not STC'd or 337'd).

[kevinh]

As a hobby I spend a lot of my time writing software for drones (www.diydrones.com / andropilot / www.droneshare.com). I'll kick in my prediction for 10 years:

Many fewer pilots - drones are making great progress and I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing "GA drones" deployed in <5 yrs.

[KatieB]

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised to know that we've already got some of the stuff on your wishlist!

Originally Posted by rmartingt

+ I'm hoping for a more affordable LPV-capable GPS by the time I'm ready for one. Right now the cheapest ones seem to be $6k; and the big G has a lock on the whole market.

GRT is actively working on it.

Originally Posted by rmartingt

+ One or two companies might be offering some kind of EVS camera that you could either feed to a dedicated screen or pipe into an EFIS (I think Dynon has mentioned they will have video-in capability at some point).

GRT has had FLIR video input with PFD instrument overlay for many years in our Horizon systems. See the July 2013 issue of Kitplanes-- our friend Ironflight wrote a review and took this picture.

Originally Posted by rmartingt

+ Highway-in-the-Sky guidance based on selected NAV/GPS flightplan or approach guidance.

GRT has had Highway-In-The-Sky for synthetic approaches and glideslope overlay since the first Horizon EFIS came out almost 10 years ago.

I really like the voice commands idea. Too bad I am just a pilot. However, I do know a couple of pretty talented engineers...