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03-19-2013, 07:40 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Calgary Alberta Canada
Posts: 456
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Flight planning from a winter environment to summer on the same flight is the most difficult flight/weather planning to do. It has proved time and time again to be our most difficult XC trips we have made. Weather slots for the flight could be less than a day in time to be able to make it through or not. It can then be bad for days in between. Mountains don't help
It is very important as others have mentioned to NOT have a return schedule date. If you have that situation, especially in winter, your best decision is the one you made. Good on ya.
We always figure on each trip we will get stuck somewhere for days, it has yet to happen but we expect/plan for it on every trip. The weather plans our trip. We may leave early or late because of it, but it so much better traveling on a great VFR day. On those days, there is no better way to travel. 
__________________
Troy Branch
RV10 Built and Flying Since Feb 2009
950hrs Plus
CC EX-2 Flying
SuperSTOL Built and Sold
RV9 Built and Sold
Avid Aerobat Built and Sold
Dues paid Nov 2019
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03-19-2013, 08:38 PM
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: KANE, Hugo, Minnesota
Posts: 765
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Bob,
You made the right decision. So you missed a game of catch with your son. Big deal. At least you guys can still play a game of catch. If you had gone, and the weather had turned sour, and you had to put your son on a plane or you made a decision to try and push through...you guys may both have made headlines. I was thinking of Luke Bucklin with Sierra Bravo and his three sons (may they rest in peace) who perished after making the wrong decision to fly when all forecasted information and flight service was telling him not to. The beauty of the decision you made is you have the ability now to mull it over. Had a bad decision been made you might not have that privilege. Now the key is, don't let this decision make you say "Last time they forecasted this it didn't turn out this way" the next time faced with a similar circumstance. Be consistent in analyzing the data you have and fly within your limits.
__________________
Aaron Arvig
RV-9A
Empennage Done
Wings-In Progress
N568AK Reserved
SOLD?but I'll be back
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03-19-2013, 10:14 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Posts: 2,182
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To err on the side of caution and make a "no-go" decision is always the correct decision. No need to second guess that.
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Neal Howard
Airplaneless once again...
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03-19-2013, 10:22 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: Denver area
Posts: 272
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LettersFromFlyoverCountry
Sometimes, I think I'm too risk-averse to be a pilot.
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I think we all think this sometimes, but the idea is sort of ludicrous. Tell someone you just met that you fly around in a little 2-seat airplane that YOU built from a kit. Then ask them if they think you are too risk averse.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LettersFromFlyoverCountry
I'd earlier been concerned about getting Patrick home in time for a shift he had scheduled on Sunday, and a test at school (he's in the nursing program) for Monday. So I bought a $550 refundable one-way ticket on Southwest from Phoenix to Minneapolis for Saturday for him, and figured if need be, I could stay in Phoenix for a few extra days and fly back alone. But at least he'd be back in time.
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This is great risk management, and I had never thought of it before reading some posts on VAF. I just had to use it yesterday, from Phoenix, for my wife. She had to be back for work at 8AM on Tuesday and the forecast winds for Denver on Monday were outside my comfort range (and the bumps would have really irritated her), so I delayed the return trip.
The regret started when I looked at a METAR at about 2PM yesterday and one of the Denver airports was reporting calm winds. CALM! The forecasts were 25G40. I felt a little better when a co-worker in Denver reported that the winds were actually "wicked."
I delay so often that my wife was actually surprised that we left the day we planned, last Friday. Anyway, I survived another day (alone) with the in-laws and made it home safe today with (the wiener) dog as my co-pilot.
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03-19-2013, 10:42 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Meridian ID, Aspen CO, Okemos MI
Posts: 2,645
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Bob and John, you are both being to me - a low time pilot, a good role model to follow. Thanks.
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rockwoodrv9a
Williamston MI
O-320 D2A
Awaiting DAR Inspection
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03-20-2013, 06:23 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gainesville, FL
Posts: 53
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Stop and consider what we would all be posting and reading if you had launched and it turned out bad.
My 22 year old daughter and I are planning a similar trip when she graduates college in May. From here in Arkansas to Tucson and then to San Luis Obispo. I've got a great IFR capable RV-6A and a current ticket but like you (and many others I'm learning) I have always come back to the question "am I too worried?? too cautious??" Maybe, maybe not.
My wife and I took the plane to Orlando last month to visit our son and had to come back a day early. I was debating back and forth about leaving as planned or going a day early when we knew the weather was good, watching the weather on the return and finally she reminded me "when we bought this plane you said you would never push it, why are you now waffling?" That pretty much sealed it.
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Avon
N331RD RV-6A
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03-20-2013, 08:02 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Huntsville AL
Posts: 145
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Weather Happens!
My wife and I flew from Huntsville AL to Tahlequah OK, in a C-172 "slow machine", to visit some friends that had moved there. The flight in was great, made a fuel stop somewhere in Arkansas and landed on a sunny day with a t-shirt on in OK. The next day it snowed 12+ inches. We were stuck for a couple days longer than expected as the snow just kept coming. I watched the weather system slowly move westward and as soon as Memphis went VFR we took off to head home. I figured we will see how far we can make it back, but if needed we can stay in Memphis. Sure enogh we caught up with the weather at Memphis, landed, stayed the night and enjoyed the little adventure we were having. We finished the flight home the next day.
It was a fun trip and now we have a great story. The anxiety of being "stuck" somewhere diminished after this trip and now every trip we take, we take in stride. I've canceled trips, but usually I delay departure. Worrying about the flight back home before you've left home I have found to be fruitless. Although planning for a plan B is an absolute in my book.
Good work on the go-no-go decision but don't let that deter you from trying again.
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03-20-2013, 10:02 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Boston. MA
Posts: 77
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Still play catch?
If you both have the day off still, find an indoor sports park somewhere in MN and go play that game of catch together, or work on a project in the basement, or something . . .
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03-20-2013, 08:49 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: logan, utah
Posts: 405
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1) flexible schedule, check. I love the friends don't let friends fly standby thing. I mean, I have standby privileges and consider flying an rv similar or better. Sometimes the weather sucks sometimes the plane is full, it's about the same to me. It is gut wrenching either way I hate the unknown but you have to live with it. My last trip I got home a day late and it turned out being the best day of the vacation.
2) it's true that you can always turn around divert etc but I have discovered personally its hard to make those choices well in the air unless you have preset personal minimums- example- how low a ceiling will I permit myself to scud run under ? What clouds will I allow myself to fly over ? ( how thick, how broken, etc). I have built some good experience and confidence, but sometimes I look back and wonder if I pushed it too much ? If I had personal minimums set I think it would be less grey. You can get away with a lot, until you don't. Does that makes sense ?
__________________
Erik Mortenson
Rans S-20 low and slow
14 build working on wings
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03-20-2013, 10:48 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Litchfield Park, AZ
Posts: 13
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Second guessing and Spring training!
First of all, I live about 10 miles from the spring training fields in Goodyear. If you would like, I could go to the game for you. Just kidding.
As far as second guessing, my opinion is that airplanes are very unforgiving of mistakes. I always think about safety before I launch on any trip.
I used to "commute" between Laredo, TX and Southern California for work from time to time. The weather in south Texas can change quickly as can the weather in Southern California certain times of the year. I would always break the trip up in 3 hours legs and make a "go, no go" decision for each leg. That way I wouldnt push myself into an unsafe condition. That seemed to work for me. I spent four extra days in Laredo once trying to get out and waiting for the T-storms and overcast to clear out.
I was driving to Laredo once and the weather was very bad (heavy rain and fog), as I looked ahead a Lancair flew past me going the opposite direction just above the powerlines and in between the lanes on I-10. He was less than 100 ft AGL scud running.
I think of that and wonder what the pilot was thinking and to be honest I wonder if he is still alive.
There is not a trip that is worth exchanging your life for.
My 2 cents worth..... Sorry to ramble on.....
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