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  #11  
Old 06-16-2009, 07:15 AM
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Ironflight Ironflight is offline
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Well, first, I want to know why Pete's flying to my place in Friendswood, and I am going to his in Minnesota?! Oh, I guess I'm goign to visit my folks...

Seriously, my first thought was "I need to see some METAR's and TAF's before I'd make any call at all. Flying strictly based on a radar picture doesn't quite fit my risk profile. I'd also want to look at trends - a snapshot doesn't really give me any reliable information on what is going to happen.

My point is - weather is not static, and while the RV's are fast, they are not fast enough to cover a thousand miles in an hour and a half, so you are going to have to perform in changing weather, not just what you see. I prepare fora long cross-country quite a bit in advance - getting in to the swing and rhythm of the weather before I go, so I can reasonably predict what is going to happen before I get there.

Now, knowing what I do know about the time of year and general climatics, I'd personally have been very leery about heading out to the southeast - that whole area is full of moisture and just waiting for the heat of the the day plus the trigger that is coming from the west to make a mess. No - I wouldn't want to get stuck in the middle of all that convective activity this time of year.

If I really felt like I needed to get out of Oshkosh, the route to northern Iowa/Southern Minnesota looked the best to me - but then where do you go? South is blocked pretty much out to the Rockies - but it will clear in a day. So in the end, if I'd been Pete, I'd have trekked to St. Paul after all, visited there for a day, and then headed south a day late.

Good thread, and a good safety exercise.

Paul
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  #12  
Old 06-16-2009, 07:18 AM
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N395V N395V is offline
 
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Web,

Nice exercise but really much more info is needed such as everything we would ordinarily get during a weather brief ie:

Tops (if available, IR sat, Metars and TAFs along the route and at the destinations and time of day.

Based on it being this time of year and with the other info in hand assuming departing OSH around 0800 I would

Climb to around 10,000 feet and fly direct to my destination, climbing as necessary and deviating when needed to remain VMC.

My suspicion is you can top most of the green areas at 9-13,000 feet and the system is scattered enough that most destinations will be scattered to clear by the time you arrive.

IFR rated or not I would not file IFR so as to be able to deviate at will.

If filing IFR this time of year I would not venture into IMC with embedded TSTMS floating around even if the XM display suggested you would be OK.

I would file a VFR flight plan so I could pick up a pop up IFR at my destination for an approach if needed and doable.

Fuel stops when and where needed to have adequate IFR reserve.

I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums.

I think each route you mention is doable.
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  #13  
Old 06-16-2009, 07:23 AM
David-aviator David-aviator is offline
 
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P.S.

When I look out the window this morning, very low ceiling, steady rain, and occasion lightning - it is a good time to kick back and watch it, not be in it. The tops in the area at present at at FL370.
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  #14  
Old 06-16-2009, 10:58 AM
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miyu1975 miyu1975 is offline
 
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"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
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  #15  
Old 06-16-2009, 12:51 PM
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BlackRV7 BlackRV7 is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miyu1975 View Post
"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
It is a no no in my book for a VFR pilot being on top when his destination is going to be overcast, so no.

Webb said everyone was current IFR:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Webb View Post

Each pilot is flying an RV and is a current and proficient IFR pilot. For sake of argument, each RV flies at 200mph in cruise. Each is equipped with an IFR approved GPS, XM weather, oxygen, and has 5 hours of fuel on board since they will be flying at a block altitude of 10,000 to 15,000 feet.
So my thoughts on Pierre and the rest of the flight launching was based solely on the information presented, that being Webb pic shot. While I would never rely solely on a NEXRAD shot, that was all we had to make Webb's call. As his 5 hour shot showed, I was a little too leary of the lows to the west. Pete and Doug may have been better off skirting west then coming down the backside of the cell. Again, when I looked at the original pic, I did not see the counterclockwise rotating low in the midwest, nor the clockwise rotating high in the gulf, pulling moisture into Pierre's route other than the normal run of the mill isolated summer stuff typical in this area. The lines just didn't look like they were going to draw nasty stuff along their route.

With all that said, I agree with other's, a whole lot of other factors need to factored into the equation, but we only had what Webb presented us.

Nice exercise. But, after flying with weather on board.....how did we do it before.....
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  #16  
Old 06-16-2009, 03:02 PM
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Mid-day update

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  #17  
Old 06-16-2009, 03:37 PM
David-aviator David-aviator is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miyu1975 View Post
"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
There is a simple premise it is safer to fly on top at 6-10,000' (or higher) rather than run scud - if there is a ceiling below to permit seeing the ground before hitting it with an engine failure and sufficient proficiency on instruments to glide through the under cast to VMC.

It also assumes weather will permit a VFR descent at destination and if not a plan to fly to an area that does permit a VFR descent.

Its the only way to travel on those hot, humid summer days with little visibility down low in the haze.
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  #18  
Old 06-16-2009, 04:49 PM
rv699jb rv699jb is offline
 
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Smile Best to wait weather out on the ground???

Quote:
Originally Posted by zilik View Post
I would tell my wife it looks like we're spending another day in OSH. Oh Darn!

Sometimes, it isn't the smartest to wait out the storm on the ground either. Right Gary, and Laird?










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Last edited by rv699jb : 06-17-2009 at 12:03 AM. Reason: clarification
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  #19  
Old 06-16-2009, 07:53 PM
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Ron Lee Ron Lee is offline
 
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Flying on top of clouds of TBD coverage was something I never did until about 1.5 years ago. Then it was only with the cloud base several thousand feet AGL, clear below, limited cloud thickness, no freezing issues and having a wing leveler to preclude issues IF I had to descend through them.

Destination was clear and time over clouds was not extensive.

Flying in the east is still something that demands respect from my point of view and a willingness to stay on the ground.

Was the picture above from the Turks & Caicos trip?
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  #20  
Old 06-16-2009, 08:31 PM
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Default The plan

First of all, Paul and Pete got their maps switched. Glad that Paul gets to visit family.

This is what I had planned for all but I was intersted in hearing from others.

I had Paul and Larry heading west splitting the cells and each hooking back around to follow the weather back home. However, since Larry really wants to do a cross country in formation, he elects to go with the southbound crowd.

Doug, Pete, Webb, Pierre, and Larry fly in a "V" pattern just to give ATC a heart attach and head to Tennessee for refueling and lunch. Since the front is only moving at 45 mph in a easterly direction and there is a high in the south keeping the front from heading southeast, that was the plan. They refuel near Nashville and get some great bar-b-q.

After lunch, all planes that landed in TN head towards their intended direction. Doug, Pete, and Webb are in severe clear. Pierre starts out in the clear and dodges a few cells in his area. Larry is the only one that could have an issue but by the time he got there, the front had moved on. Only problem is he now has to explain to his wife how he got a sunburn at the beach when the weather at Oshkosh was forcast for rain.

According the the 5 hour report, and afternoon report, this would have worked out.
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