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06-16-2009, 03:06 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Jackson, MS
Posts: 1,262
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How would you plan around this weather?
The subject of safety came up on my last post about flying in the vicinity of some truly nasty weather and it would be a good post for discussion.
Well here it is.
The weather pictured here is fresh. The center of the country has a very large nasty cell moving east at 45 mph based on the winds at 18,000 feet. Ironically, it resembles the ?blob? that I encountered Sunday morning. There are other cells scattered about but not as severe as this large one. The direction of each cell?s movement is shown by the black arrow and is based on what the radar mosaic shows.
This cast of characters is assembled in Oshkosh, however this time the weather stayed dry. It?s time to leave and weather is on its way.
Each pilot is flying an RV and is a current and proficient IFR pilot. For sake of argument, each RV flies at 200mph in cruise. Each is equipped with an IFR approved GPS, XM weather, oxygen, and has 5 hours of fuel on board since they will be flying at a block altitude of 10,000 to 15,000 feet.
Plan each route and why:
Paul is going to St. Paul - light blue line
Larry is going to Lincoln ? blue line
Doug is going to Highland Village ? orange line
Pete is going to Friendswood ? light green line
Webb is going to New Orleans ? red line
Pierre is going to Louisville ? yellow line
Larry is thinking about going to Charleston because he?s never been there ? pink line

__________________
Webb Willmott
Jackson, MS
N32WW
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06-16-2009, 04:39 AM
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VAF Moderator
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Pine Junction, CO
Posts: 655
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This is a no brainer
I would tell my wife it looks like we're spending another day in OSH. Oh Darn!
__________________
Gary "Seismo" Zilik
Pine Junction, Colorado
RV-6A N99PZ S/N 22993 SOLD
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06-16-2009, 05:30 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Louisville, Ga
Posts: 7,840
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I'd launch...
...since it's clear at Osh and I'm faster than the weather to the Southwest. By the time I get refueled, the wx in Georgia may or may not be there...the 496 and my eyes will tell. Might take an hour or two on the ground someplace.
Larry can come along too, since the South Carolina weather might be gone too or stop some place in Tn. and wait a bit for Charleston to improve.
Regards,
__________________
Pierre Smith
RV-10, 510 TT
RV6A (Sojourner) 180 HP, Catto 3 Bl (502Hrs), gone...and already missed
Air Tractor AT 502B PT 6-15 Sold
Air Tractor 402 PT-6-20 Sold
EAA Flight Advisor/CFI/Tech Counselor
Louisville, Ga
It's never skill or craftsmanship that completes airplanes, it's the will to do so,
Patrick Kenny, EAA 275132
Dues gladly paid!
Last edited by pierre smith : 06-16-2009 at 05:32 AM.
Reason: added Larry
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06-16-2009, 05:44 AM
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 64
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Scenery Enroute
Jim Baker
RV-6 (leaks water)
Last edited by rv699jb : 06-16-2009 at 05:53 AM.
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06-16-2009, 05:57 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Huskerland, USA
Posts: 5,862
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zilik
I would tell my wife it looks like we're spending another day in OSH. Oh Darn!
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This works for me!
You can see my route (blue line) is easy. I'd just stay north of the red stuff and come in from behind (no jokes inserted here  ) the storm. If the storm is over my destination (as it was last night  ) I'd pick an airport with a crew car and land, refuel, and go have a burger. Always better to divert and live to fly another day.
In route I can look at the weather and may have been able to split the two main storm cells near Kansas City, but Lincoln is still "under fire" leaving me with an overnight stay somewhere. Better to fly dry than in the rain so going north would have been the best choice. IMHO.
IMHO one big mistake made here is waiting until the afternoon to launch. Most sever SIGMETS are in the PM after the sun has heated up the atmosphere. By launching early in the AM you can avoid alot of weather issues.
I do really need to get to the SE!
__________________
RV-7 : In the hangar
RV-10 : In the hangar
RV-12 : Built and sold
RV-44 : 4 place helicopter on order.
Last edited by Geico266 : 06-16-2009 at 06:24 AM.
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06-16-2009, 06:09 AM
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 704
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I'm game
Since I've been dodging these things on a regular basis these past several weeks, I'm game.
Paul launches west and sneaks in on the backside as the greens works it's way ENE.
Larry launches west and again sneaks in on the backside. Larry, your flight and Paul's may be the only two where I sit for an hour at Oshkosh to let the green stuff for Paul (usually nothing more than a good airplane wash) and your yellow cell to move a little more east, considering the speed of your RV.
Now it get interesting. That low in the midwest doesn't look like it is dragging weather up from the gulf with it's counter clockwise rotation and the lines are far apart. Hum....
If I'm Doug, I'm probably heading SSE towards the high and come around the south side of the cell. If I go west, I'm going to be dealing with two lows, I'll take the high.
Pete, Webb, Pierre and Larry, why don't you four launch as a four ship to, at least, middle TN where Pete and Webb you would be cleared from the flight for a run home. Pierre, of your four ship, you look like you have the best chance for a direct flight home with Larry on your wing looking for an opportunity to turn ENE and go into Charleston. Larry, looks to me you are the one most likely to have to put down for a soda pop before heading on in for short flight after the weather clears.
If you are not willing to fly in this kind of weather in the midwest this time of year, you might as well sell your bird. I consider myself to be a conservative flyer but I launch in all 7 scenarios.
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06-16-2009, 06:19 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Huskerland, USA
Posts: 5,862
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackRV7
Larry, looks to me you are the one most likely to have to put down for a soda pop before heading on in for short flight after the weather clears.
If you are not willing to fly in this kind of weather in the Midwest this time of year, you might as well sell your bird. I consider myself to be a conservative flier but I launch in all 7 scenarios.
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The kind of "soda pop" I would enjoy would prevent further flight for 8 hours after the last beverage.
EXCELLENT thread Web!
__________________
RV-7 : In the hangar
RV-10 : In the hangar
RV-12 : Built and sold
RV-44 : 4 place helicopter on order.
Last edited by Geico266 : 06-16-2009 at 06:26 AM.
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06-16-2009, 06:38 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Jackson, MS
Posts: 1,262
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5 hours later
It's 5 hours later.....did you plan well?

__________________
Webb Willmott
Jackson, MS
N32WW
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06-16-2009, 06:46 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 358
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All of those trips are very doable with XM weather, except Dallas and Houston, those would take some major deviations.... And you will be racing the storm to get around the front end. I would probably have a beer and call it a day on those trips.
All the rest could be done with reasonable deviations in a 200 mph airplane.
I typically fly much lower than 10500 when working around Thunderstorms.
Tailwinds,
Rozy
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06-16-2009, 07:06 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Chesterfield, Missouri
Posts: 4,514
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How 'bout a pilot report near the center of the weather action.
The system on the first radar picture moved out of Missouri by noon yesterday and we had broken clouds with periods of sunshine most of the afternoon. A noon departure from OSH headed south might have worked out all right along the Mississippi River VFR.
The system on todays map is a second wave, almost identical to what passed here 24 hours ago. At present most of the state is IFR with TRW's imbedded and lots of rain. It too is moving east and should be out of here by noon.
I did a flight plan with Dan's Weathermeister service and it shows IFR along a small part of the route in IOWA, the rest is VFR this afternoon. (OSH-02MO)
As stated before, I do not do IFR in these airplanes but do believe I could have made it home yesterday afternoon VFR. In any event, there are plenty of landing places along the route if the forecast does not hold up.
__________________
RV-12 Build Helper
RV-7A...Sold #70374
The RV-8...Sold #83261
I'm in, dues paid 2019 This place is worth it!
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