The next 35 years...

[captainron]

Originally Posted by asav8tor View Post
Avgas will be a minimum of $25/gal.

Originally Posted by RichB

So we'll probably be running on biodiesel or SVO (straight vegetable oil, doesn't need to be chemically refined like biodiesel). That'll be in either piston aero-diesels or (more likely) small Innodyne-like turbines optimised for the fuel. With fuel costs that high, the low efficiency of the small turbines at low altitude won't be issue, and the business case for selling small turbines will have improved.

[dreaming]Or maybe someone will be clever enough to make a 2-shaft U-shaped turbine that adds extra stages to improve the efficiency in a small package.[/dreaming]

If avgas is only $25.00/gal. in 35 years, you can relax! That means it will be a lot cheaper than it is now! I'm not highly paid by any means, but I'm making about eight times more than my solidly middle-class father was making before he passed away in 1972. If salaries increase eight-fold in the next 35 years, it will take fewer minutes of work to buy a gallon than it takes now.

BTW, how much was avgas 35 years ago, and if you were working and flying then, how long did you have to work to buy a gallon then? Is it cheaper now?

Example: If you earned $12,000 thirty-five years ago, and avgas was $0.40/gal, you had to work 4.16 minutes to buy a gallon. How long do you work now to buy the same gallon?

[prkaye]

I think the intent of the statement was $25/gal in today's dollars.

[prkaye]

The electric powered sonex is VERY interesting to me. I guess you have to plug it in to recharge? This could be a problem as most airport ramp parking don't have electrical outlets ready for you to plug into. This doesn't seem practical for x-country without a change in infastructure. Unless you could pop the batteries out of the plane easily and take them with you to recharge.

With the appearance of all these hybrid powered cars now, I wonder if that's a possibility in the future for GA.

[David-aviator]

Originally Posted by prkaye

I just realized, 2008 is the 35th year for Van's Aircraft! Over the last 35 years, Vans aircraft have certainly had a large part to play in the significant advancements in homebuilding. The landscape for homebuilders is quite different now than it was 35 years ago (not that I'm old enough to remember, but from what i've read!).

I think it's interesting to ponder how much different again the homebuilt landscape may be in 2043 (another 35 years). Or even another 10 or 20 years? Any predictions on what's to come? My first bet would be a massive shift to a powerplant that uses something other than gasoline. I won't try to predict what the alternative fuel will be. Also, electronics will continue to evolve and things like EFIS and avionics will get better and better. What else? Let's bounce around some predictions!

Predicting the future is risky. But there are computer models trying to do just that today based on current and immediate past trends. In fact, you can pick your model and find a future that meets your needs with regard to changing climate.

Demographics is another area of future speculation. Based on current projections, Muslims will rule Europe in 35 years (or less).

Recreation flying will continue and won't change that much except it will get more expensive and exclusive. Pilot training is way off, there will be fewer of us. Not even a war will promote pilot training as most of it will be push button. Electronics won't advance as much as it has, GPS is already down to one meter accuracy, so it gets down to 6 inches, big deal. We have on board weather without radar. We do not need auto land systems as they simply degrade pilot skills.

Hopefully, someone will invent an engine that runs on CO2 and emits H2O. Based on scientific advances in the past 200 years, could that happen? Maybe, maybe not.

We are accustomed to rapid change but things may be slowing down. There was a time when important printing was done by hand on velum the skin of calves and did not change for about 3000 years. I don't see things changing too much in 35 years. How much better can computers get. I am already bored with the new models which was not true 15 years ago.

We are due for a period of stability to consolidate where we are. I will not see as much change as I've seen as there isn't much time left. I do believe in a life after life and look forward to some traveling around the universe to see what else is going on out there. For sure this planet is not the only show in the universe.

[breister]

The rate of technological advance is accelerating, not moving ahead in a linear way as would be the intuitive sense. Thus, next year there will be MORE new discoveries than there were THIS year, in a near exponential progression.

Electric power is the future; we are only waiting for the batteries. There are new announcements almost every week now of new breakthroughs; which one will win out in the marketplace is almost irrelevant. Some top contenders are Nanowire Batteries (this article solves 1/2 of the problem for batteries with 5-10 times the energy density of current Li-Ion) and Carbon Nanotube Capacitors (better than batteries because, lacking chemical reactions, they could be recharged virtually an unlimited number of times). I suspect the latter are some ways off (say, 10 years) while the former will probably exceed the energy density of AvGas within 5 years in an economically feasible package.

The motors are already here - and we don't need (nor in all probability WANT) fancy AC converters in an aircraft when a much simpler solution is obvious. AC = Alarming Cacophony of electrical noise. Instead use MANY SMALL DC motors all driving a common shaft, perhaps with a drive pulley which can freewheel to avoid drag when not providing power. Instant multi-engine centerline thrust for safe operation over water or rugged terrain! Power output = HP per motor * number of motors turned on, no loss with altitude. Without the deadly power pulses of piston engines, electric prop hubs can be made which are much more responsive than the current crop of MT and their competitors.

Charging in your hanger? Well, as long as there is no way a fire can start then sure. Most hangers have at least 15 amp service, and although it would take all week to charge at 10 amps / 120 volts that might be just fine with many pilots. If that's not good enough, your local utility company will be happy (for a price) to install high capacity 220 service. That $200 fillup would evaporate to a $10 - $30 electric bill at todays' prices. You could easily cross the United States for under $100.

So, should you throw away your plane? Heck, no. Using combinations of small motors and cleverly designed packs of batteries, you will be able to package an electric drive into virtually any existing airframe. Maintenance will become mostly a thing of nostalgia.

[N941WR]

Originally Posted by prkaye

The electric powered sonex is VERY interesting to me. I guess you have to plug it in to recharge?

You still need to produce that electricity some place. Today most of that comes from coal.

As for the batteries, they are one nasty product and I suspect that in 35 years they will be banned as we know them because of production and disposal issues. This is going to be a real issues when people start replacing the batteries in their hybrids. Even bigger

[rph142]

Fortunately gliders will always be an option. I say we all start heaping our trash in nice long ridges so in the future we can all go trash ridge soaring.

[AntiGravity]

Originally Posted by prkaye

The electric powered sonex is VERY interesting to me. I guess you have to plug it in to recharge?

...and the associated accident reports: "pilot neglected to unplug before flight. Takeoff terminated at length of extension cord!"

[sprucemoose]

Originally Posted by prkaye

With the appearance of all these hybrid powered cars now, I wonder if that's a possibility in the future for GA.

I seriously doubt it. I don't believe that you will be able to buy a hybrid car in 10 years, maybe even 5. The MPG delta vs. the same car with a gas engine is just not that great. Many are sold on emotion and not mathematical logic. I know, my wife bought one last summer Plus the manufacture and disposal costs...

I think the current hybrid will be eclipsed by fuel cell/ hydrogen/ ??? in the 5-10 year out time frame.

Electric flight may not be practical for X/C, but for the 1-2 hour recreational flight it will fit the bill nicely. And let's face it, that's what most of us do most of the time. Think of a Cub for the 21st Century!

[Steve Brown]

Originally Posted by breister

The rate of technological advance is accelerating, not moving ahead in a linear way as would be the intuitive sense. Thus, next year there will be MORE new discoveries than there were THIS year, in a near exponential progression.

Electric power is the future; we are only waiting for the batteries. .................................................. ....

The motors are already here - and we don't need (nor in all probability WANT) fancy AC converters in an aircraft when a much simpler solution is obvious. AC = Alarming Cacophony of electrical noise. Instead use MANY SMALL DC motors all driving a common shaft, .................................................. ......

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I agree about the acceleration of technology advancements. Also that we are waiting for batteries.
The problem is, we have been waiting for batteries for decades with only small and slow advancements. Batteries have not kept pace with all the gadgets that use them.

Well engineered hydrogen fuel cells are likely practical for cars, possibly for airplanes if they can be made light enough.

The power electronics / motor control for an airplane is a different story. That technology is well advanced. Motor control for an airplane is inherently simple - move the lever forward to get more power, back for less. auto control is much more complex because of stop/starts, energy recovery braking, etc.

So, the power electronics is not at all the limiting factor for electric flight.

By the way, "DC Motor" is a misnomer. A true DC motor does not exist. So called DC motors use either an electromechanical stator or a power converter to create the moving field (AC) needed to run the motor.

IMO, recharging is not going to fly (NPI) except for local recreational flying. For cross country flying, a way of putting fuel into the airplane (hydrogen?) quickly is a must.