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03-16-2020, 01:13 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 23
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CoVid and Airplane Prices
Hey guys,
I'm looking to buy my first airplane, and am most interested in the RV6, RV7 and RV8. My funds are limited, and I think I can probably get a better deal on an RV6. But I'm open to all 3, with a preference for taildraggers.
I've heard someone theorize that the health and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic might depress prices of flying aircraft and advanced kits within the next 6 months. Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?
Stay healthy guys!
Steve
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03-16-2020, 01:30 PM
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Join Date: May 2014
Location: Friendswood TX
Posts: 218
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Can't comment in 2008; but you are probably accurate. Much of the folks who are consumers of GA derive income from aviation; and the hit to the industry will be on par with 911.
__________________
Mark Andrew Tacquard
RV8 N189DK
RV10 in progress
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03-16-2020, 01:54 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 1,005
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Health Warning Alert - give wide berth to any aircraft exhibiting symptoms of coughing, spitting or dripping.
__________________
Ralph
built a few RVs, rebuilt a few more, hot rodded some, & maintained/updated a bunch more
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03-16-2020, 02:02 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 1,558
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I think it?s way too early to tell. It?s only been a bad situation here for less than two weeks. They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer. That?s my optimistic, but realistic guess. If I wanted to sell my airplane, I certainly wouldn?t do it when we just stalled it and are in the middle of a spin. Let?s hope our PIC can keep his cool, apply the right controls, and recover before we bite the dust.
__________________
SH
RV6/2001 built/sold 2005
RV8 Fastback/2008 built/sold 2015
RV4/bought 2016/sold/2017
RV8/2018 built/Sold(sadly)
RV4/bought 2019 Flying
Cincinnati, OH/KHAO
JAN2020
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03-16-2020, 02:23 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Boulder, CO
Posts: 4,435
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Sorry, no vaccine is at all ready.
Here's a reasonably reliable guide to what's known. I've found the site, Ars Technica, to be reliable over the last several years. This article gets updated daily and has just been updated for today.
As for airplane prices, about the only observation I can make, in the absence of data, is that among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales. Probably not all that rapidly, as the estates will need to be probated and the virus will slow that down.
Dave
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03-16-2020, 02:29 PM
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been here awhile
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: North Alabama
Posts: 4,301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s11033
Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?
Stay healthy guys!
Steve
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I won't try to predict what will happen the remainder of this year, but in regard to your questions, yes, RV prices did decline following the recession in 2008. In cases where buyers tried to maintain pricing, it took longer to move the aircraft.
Last edited by Sam Buchanan : 03-16-2020 at 02:51 PM.
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03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Oklahoma City, OK
Posts: 534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Paule
?among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales.?.....
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That?s what I like ?a positive attitude.? While it might work out that way, I can say that not many of us ?seniors? want to think about ?estate sales?.
__________________
Jim Harris, ATP, T38, EC/KC-135A/E/R, 2008 RV7A, 2nd owner, N523RM (2015)
Superior XPIO-360, Hartzel CS prop, Aerotronics panel with Dual GRT Horizon WS, EIS, Garmin 340, 335 w/WAAS gps, Dual 430s (non-WAAS), TruTrak 385 A/P with auto-level, Electric trim, Tosten 6 button Military Grips, FlightBox wired to WS, Dynon D10A w/battery backup, 406 MHz ELT. Custom Interior, New TS Flightline hoses, Great POH!
Retired - Living the dream - going broke!
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03-16-2020, 03:35 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Park Ridge, NJ
Posts: 637
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Hersha
...They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer.
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They are no where near having a vaccine... and probably wont for at least a year. Not sure where you got that misinformation.
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03-16-2020, 03:59 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Lake Havasu City AZ
Posts: 2,393
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Vaccine
Presidential press conference less than two hours ago they are ready to test a vaccine.
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03-16-2020, 04:01 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,646
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My observation FWIW... When I started building in 2005, people were getting significantly more than they were putting into the 2-seaters. (That was a selling point I made to my wife!  ) It got to the point where the issues of "professional" or serial builds for profit were quite common and on the rise. However, by the time I finished and started flying in 2012, that profit margin had pretty much dried up for the 2-seaters. Since then I don't think people get a whole lot more (if any) out of them than what they put in. I'm guessing that the 2008-9 crash made the initial difference. Thereafter, (relative) market saturation have kept prices around the cost to build.
All that said, it seems like the market for the -10 has always been pretty strong. This leads me to believe that, if you've got enough money for a -10 in the first place, then a market downturn is less likely to impact your airplane buying than it would if your budget is more suited to the 2-seaters.
__________________
Steve M.
Ellensburg WA
RV-9 Flying, 0-320, Catto
Donation reminder: Jan. 2021
Last edited by alpinelakespilot2000 : 03-16-2020 at 04:04 PM.
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