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  #31  
Old 04-22-2019, 12:11 AM
rv8ch's Avatar
rv8ch rv8ch is offline
 
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Default thinking about risk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamin9 View Post
...Regardless, one can simply circle the lake, north or south. In most cases that would force an extra fuel stop. Of course , it's likely that take off and landing are the highest risk portions of flying and by going around the lake you've added that that extra exposure. Maybe there's someone good with stats on this board who has the time and ability to calculate the relative risks. ...
Carl, based on the reading I've done on risk in my various lives, this is the right way to think about it. We often do things to mitigate one risk while greatly increasing risk in another area. Humans are not very good at numbers, and our ability to compare risks is terrible. We're worried about being killed by terrorists but are killing ourselves by drinking a liter of coke per day. We're worried about an airliner crashing so instead we drive to see grandma during the holidays.

I think the good news about ditching is that it seems to be a very rare event, but that could be only because so many of us fear a negative outcome that we avoid long overwater flights.
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  #32  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:05 AM
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YellowPeril YellowPeril is offline
 
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I live , and learned how to fly, in the Great State of Maine, where a flying friend of mine from North Dakota, described as, "Nothin' but trees, rocks and water."

I never gave it much of a thought, although the general consensus was "aim for the trees if you have a choice..."

A few years back I flew out to visit a friend in Iowa. He's an incredibly accomplished pilot, owns an F-1 Rocket (among other a/c) and frequents this site. He's fond of singing a song called "House of Sin." anyway, when we arrive he asked me my route of flight, and I told him that we came direct across Lake Michigan. He stopped in his tracks and commented, "You must clank when you walk. I'd never do THAT in a single engine airplane."

THAT got my attention.

He also joked that another mutual friend (even more accomplished if you can believe it..you've heard of him...big yellow biplane) wouldn't cross a river unless he could find a bridge.

RV's are fast. I go around (most of the time).
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  #33  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:36 AM
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gmcjetpilot gmcjetpilot is offline
 
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I did not read the whole thread or know the -10 well, so forgive. If you land upright and the aircraft is floating you will likely be able to open the door and get out. If you flip (most likely) you may not be able to get the door open, until the cabin fills and equalizes the pressure.

This is a scary thought, even during the day time. There is a story on the forum of a member ditching in ocean between Hawaiian islands. Forgot details and model but not a -10.

My suggestions are (pick one or more):
  • Fly at all times with gliding of land
  • Have something to break the Plexi,
  • Modify the door to jettison in fight, or
  • Portable breather, not to drown while the plane sinks and pressure equalizes allowing the door to be opened. The hydro boat racers all have portable O2.
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Last edited by gmcjetpilot : 05-03-2019 at 04:00 PM.
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  #34  
Old 04-22-2019, 01:02 PM
F1R F1R is offline
 
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Default Feeling Lucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rv8ch View Post
Carl, based on the reading I've done on risk in my various lives, this is the right way to think about it. We often do things to mitigate one risk while greatly increasing risk in another area. Humans are not very good at numbers, and our ability to compare risks is terrible. We're worried about being killed by terrorists but are killing ourselves by drinking a liter of coke per day. We're worried about an airliner crashing so instead we drive to see grandma during the holidays.

I think the good news about ditching is that it seems to be a very rare event, but that could be only because so many of us fear a negative outcome that we avoid long overwater flights.
Overall I can't argue with the big picture of the odds. However..

IF the engine has quit and the H2O is inevitable, you might as well bail out and open your parachute from enough altitude as required. Then hit your quick release risers before inflating your Mae West and inflating your life raft.

Not wearing a parachute? Better get and maintain some underwater egress training.
Or else install R44 skid type inflatable floatation cells on your RV.

A lot of seasoned sea plane pilots will not fly across lake superior or any of the great lakes, even in aircraft that can land and float on water.
Big water = BIG waves
Even if the ditching all goes flawlessly and you are an olympic class swimmer, the hypothermia will finish most humans in short order.

But yes, the odds of the engine failing are low.

There was recently (2011) an example of a pilot that did survive for over 17 hours in Lake Huron after doing almost every possible wrong thing to survive.
https://youtu.be/zDQT5puGPX8
Pure mental will and determination to stay alive for his family kept him swimming beyond known and accepted limits of endurance.

Last edited by F1R : 04-23-2019 at 06:22 AM.
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  #35  
Old 04-22-2019, 06:18 PM
Gary7A Gary7A is offline
 
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Location: Dalton, Ohio
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Second the recommendation of egress (dunker) training. Invaluable,
and fun to boot.
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  #36  
Old 04-26-2019, 10:05 AM
Paul 5r4 Paul 5r4 is offline
 
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I USE to want to fly my RV to the Bahamas..... that is until I saw the video of the two RVs that suffered a mid-air low over a beach someplace. IIRC one of them went in on the nose. The other guy appeared to do everything right including opening his canopy.... slider. Despite being pretty slow when he hit the water he instantly flipped. Many folks on the beach rushed out and I think he was fine.

After that video it got me to thinking. I've come to the conclusion that an RV will flip over in the water.... just my thinking. I have a tip up and unless the canopy fractured on impact, I'd bet it would serve as a death trap. With the weight of the aircraft now bearing down on the tip up canopy there would be no way to get out until the pressure equalizes. Now imagine this. You're out over some water someplace with any helping hands far away... trapped inside an inverted airplane that you can't exit until a substantial amount of water comes in. It's going to go down engine first as air finds exit points out the tail area. I believe I'd end up well under water before being able to get out. And BTW, I don't think having a tool to break the canopy would solve this problem. It boils down to the whole risk management thing and it's just more risk than I'm willing to accept.

A friend of mine suggested I keep a magazine onboard to read until I'd be able to exit! I decided to pass on the Bahamas, there are plenty of places right here in the country to see.
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Last edited by Paul 5r4 : 04-26-2019 at 10:09 AM.
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  #37  
Old 04-26-2019, 10:42 AM
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smokyray smokyray is offline
 
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Default Be prepared...

Last time I counted I had crossed the Pacific 12 times and the Atlantic twice that amount, all in a single engine Jet (F16) and mostly over very cold water (icebergs notwithstanding) enroute to a very bad part of the world doing some fairly risky flying. My friends and I often joked about the risks, but it’s part of it, pure and simple.
Acceptable Inherent Risk. It’s is part of life, especially flying airplanes, much less in a combat environment. Thats why I believe you should always be prepared for any contingency, life, death or otherwise.

That said, a few years ago I met an RV4 driver at Oshkosh and ended up sharing our engine failure stories. His engine failure occurred over Lake Michigan. After several unsuccessful restart attempts and reaching 1000’ AWL he focused on ditching. He set up his approach parallel to the shoreline into prevailing winds in sight of nearby boats at best glide speed until 500’ where he set full flaps and prepared for water impact. Tightened harness, fuel/master off. He made a full stall landing onto the water and did not flip over. He raised the canopy and egressed onto the wing. He told me he thought of swimming to an approaching boat but the airplane stayed afloat. Eventually it did sink while being towed to shore. Moral of the story, a survivable ditching done right. Why? He was prepared.

On any of my RV overwater flying, I have a plan for engine failure in open ocean, near shore, rough or smooth water. In addition to regular survival items I carry in my pockets a small marine VHF, sea dye and mirror.
For a water landing a full stall, full aft stick tailwheel first “splashdown” should work better than a flying speed touchdown as flipping over is less a potential with less forward momentum. Swells should be landed parallel just like in a seaplane. Also, know where your canopy breaker is as opening the canopy underwater upside down and inflating your LPUs could be the difference between life and drowning. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
BTW, a forced landing in trees, mountains or urban areas poorly executed can have just as catastrophic results as water. Again, have a plan.

As the old saying goes, flying isn’t inherently dangerous,, but to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.

V/R
Smokey

PS: If you’re not sure of your final contingency, contact me off line, I have a friend in high places.

Last edited by smokyray : 04-26-2019 at 11:30 AM.
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  #38  
Old 04-26-2019, 06:29 PM
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donaziza donaziza is offline
 
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Location: Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smokyray View Post
Last time I counted I had crossed the Pacific 12 times and the Atlantic twice that amount, all in a single engine Jet (F16) and mostly over very cold water (icebergs notwithstanding) enroute to a very bad part of the world doing some fairly risky flying. My friends and I often joked about the risks, but it?s part of it, pure and simple.
Acceptable Inherent Risk. It?s is part of life, especially flying airplanes, much less in a combat environment. Thats why I believe you should always be prepared for any contingency, life, death or otherwise.

That said, a few years ago I met an RV4 driver at Oshkosh and ended up sharing our engine failure stories. His engine failure occurred over Lake Michigan. After several unsuccessful restart attempts and reaching 1000? AWL he focused on ditching. He set up his approach parallel to the shoreline into prevailing winds in sight of nearby boats at best glide speed until 500? where he set full flaps and prepared for water impact. Tightened harness, fuel/master off. He made a full stall landing onto the water and did not flip over. He raised the canopy and egressed onto the wing. He told me he thought of swimming to an approaching boat but the airplane stayed afloat. Eventually it did sink while being towed to shore. Moral of the story, a survivable ditching done right. Why? He was prepared.

On any of my RV overwater flying, I have a plan for engine failure in open ocean, near shore, rough or smooth water. In addition to regular survival items I carry in my pockets a small marine VHF, sea dye and mirror.
For a water landing a full stall, full aft stick tailwheel first ?splashdown? should work better than a flying speed touchdown as flipping over is less a potential with less forward momentum. Swells should be landed parallel just like in a seaplane. Also, know where your canopy breaker is as opening the canopy underwater upside down and inflating your LPUs could be the difference between life and drowning. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
BTW, a forced landing in trees, mountains or urban areas poorly executed can have just as catastrophic results as water. Again, have a plan.

As the old saying goes, flying isn?t inherently dangerous,, but to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.

V/R
Smokey

PS: If you?re not sure of your final contingency, contact me off line, I have a friend in high places.
Yeah, but Smokey, if you were flying in the Air Force, flying over water and flying into combat was part of your job description. In a single engine fun airplane, its not. Educate me here if you would---you'd never try to water land an F 16, correct? You eject, and hope a chopper was not too far off, Navy or otherwise?? Would you guys have some sort of thermal insulating flight suit, if flying over the north atlantic??

Interesting stuff
Just curious
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  #39  
Old 04-26-2019, 09:33 PM
Paul 5r4 Paul 5r4 is offline
 
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And Smoky.... has anyone ever use the canopy braking tool? Seem it would not work that well because the canopy isn't glass. I wonder if it's ever been tested on an aircraft canopy and surely it has. Would be interested in the results.

And thank you sir for your service to our great nation!
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  #40  
Old 04-27-2019, 05:37 AM
Paul 5r4 Paul 5r4 is offline
 
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Thanks for the video link Carl. I have to admit it works better than I thought it would. Still for me.... I think I'll skip any lengthy overwater flying. It is a manageable risk I suppose but still beyond my comfort level.
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pilotforfun2001@yahoo.com
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