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10-17-2018, 11:53 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alpine, WY
Posts: 11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwilbur
I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).
Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.
Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
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Seems like you are making the right decisions. Believe the weather reports and use all the tools you can. Note: Just because you are working on getting your Instrument Rating does NOT mean you will automatically be able to make that IFR flight. You will still need to use excellent decision making based on understanding all the tools for weather and looking outside, and, most important understanding your new personal minimums as a newby IFR pilot. Be safe and if it doesn't feel right don't go "just because you can".
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10-17-2018, 01:20 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Edson, Alberta, Canada
Posts: 483
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Right on the money!
Sounds to me like you are thinking things through rather well.
IFR is great if you practise it lots, no practise and that ticket wont do much good in your pocket. So go for the ticket but keep practised.
As for your decisions with VFR, i have over 500 hours and many years of flying and i have left them behind me twice. If you are tiime constrained in your destination goal, go commercial or be prepared to take groudn transport. HAVE THAT AS AN OPTION!\\
__________________
Dave Cobb
[color="Red"]=VAF=2019 Donation - and a bit extra for great work![/COLOR="blue"]
Empennage RV 7 - Tipper
Wings complete
Dynon installed and running
Fuse closer to completion, Canopy complete
AME reviewed and repaired O-320-Lyc installed
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11-13-2018, 09:45 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Willis Texas
Posts: 15
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Weatherspork
www.weatherspork.com is by far the best aviation weather info and training available. I regularly fly ifr and use this every trip. Go through all the training videos and learn to use a Skew-T chart. Everything will become a lot clearer.
Charlie
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11-13-2018, 10:37 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wichita, KS
Posts: 1,958
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Sisk
www.weatherspork.com is by far the best aviation weather info and training available. I regularly fly ifr and use this every trip. Go through all the training videos and learn to use a Skew-T chart. Everything will become a lot clearer.
Charlie
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Are you affiliated with this company? At $79/yr subscription for weather, it seems a bit spendy (and no free trial period that I could find). Skew-T's are available free elsewhere. Can you tell us more about why you like this service?
__________________
Kurt W.
RV9A
FLYING!!!
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11-13-2018, 01:47 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Rochester NY
Posts: 669
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NGM MOS
A free source of weather forecasting is at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast...MAV/index.html . You can get a similar presentation across the time period by looking at https://www.wunderground.com/forecas...=localwx_10day .
I've been using this for years (and the tabular format before that) and have been surprised at how accurate (very good, not perfect) the forecasting has been.
My suggestion is to pick a source and "benchmark" it for a comfort level with its accuracy. Generally, even in the winter in the Great Lakes, if you can be flexible in your departure times by six to nine hours, you'll probably see a slice of time that's workable. But, no matter what, never give up the ability to just say no-go today and don't second guess the decision.
__________________
RV7A (N7101) - Flying 10/2008
CFI- SE/ME/Inst
A&P
KC2ZEL
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11-13-2018, 02:41 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Eatonton Georgia
Posts: 239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockwoodrv9
One bit of information that some may forget is highway web cameras, ski area cameras, and even airport cameras. They work for driving, can work for flying too.
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This is a great idea !
__________________
Butch
RV6A Purchased N72TX
2020 Dues Paid
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11-14-2018, 09:16 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Willis Texas
Posts: 15
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I am not affliated with this company. If there is a weather source that comes anywhere near this one, please show it as I will start using that. My only association is being an ifr flyer, and being a user of weatherspork. I mainly travel for business and understanding weather is important. Its not worth the cost to some folks, as if they go or dont go really doesnt matter. Any here actually used weatherspork ?
Charlie
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11-14-2018, 09:18 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Willis Texas
Posts: 15
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I have a better idea. I will try to contact the manager/owner and let him explain.
Stand by.
Charlie
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11-14-2018, 02:48 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Charlotte
Posts: 22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Sisk
I have a better idea. I will try to contact the manager/owner and let him explain.
Stand by.
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and
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwilbur
I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).
Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.
Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
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Joe,
Would like to thank Charlie for pointing this out.
Yes, I'm the co-founder of the new WeatherSpork app Charlie mentioned. I'm not going to talk about the app since that would require me to be an advertiser on this site, but I can try to address some of your concerns.
First, forecasts are imperfect and wrong from the moment they are issued. However, you can distill a lot of truth out of those imperfect forecasts...you just have to learn how to do that. I've been teaching aviation weather to pilots for nearly 20 years and I can tell you that weather is likely the least understood of all of the disciplines you need to master as a pilot and affects your flying activity more than any other physical factor.
Here's a common complaint I hear, "the forecasts were horrible...I flew from Airport A to Airport B and the forecast didn't mention thunderstorms at all, but I spent the entire flight dodging them." I usually ask, what forecast they were using. Most of the time, they will tell me they were looking at the TAFs along the route. Well, there's the issue. When I take a look at the actual weather for those airports along that route, none of them reported a thunderstorm.
Effectively, the forecast was spot on. This is because a TAF is a forecast for an airport. It's not a zone or area forecast, but pilots tend to use them as such. The TAF is only valid 5 statute miles from the airport, so if you are using a TAF that's on the other side of a mountain ridge 20 miles from your route, you can have significantly different weather over that ridge.
This is not to say that forecasts are always spot on...they are not. That's why it's important to understand the big picture. That will provide you with the best clues as to the weather you should expect. Yes, TAFs are important and useful if you plan to go to that airport (as a destination or alternate). That's how they should be used...not as en route forecasts.
I always hear the phases, "a no-go decision is never a wrong decision" or "don't beat yourself up if the weather turned out to be better and you could have flown."
These are true, but don't offer the complete story. If you've made a wrong decision where you could have flown, it won't be long before you make a wrong decision where you shouldn't have flown. You can't have your cake and eat it too. So, it could have been due to a bad forecast or it could have been a misunderstanding of how to properly use the forecasts you relied upon (most likely the case). In my experience, I see a lot of situations where the pilot was never properly taught or taught incorrectly.
I can certainly add more to this conversation, but I invite you to watch this free video I created that highlights some important topics that are not taught to pilots in their primary training. You won't be disappointed.
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11-14-2018, 05:43 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Culpeper, VA
Posts: 693
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottd
and
Joe,
Would like to thank Charlie for pointing this out.
Yes, I'm the co-founder of the new WeatherSpork app Charlie mentioned. I'm not going to talk about the app since that would require me to be an advertiser on this site, but I can try to address some of your concerns.
First, forecasts are imperfect and wrong from the moment they are issued. However, you can distill a lot of truth out of those imperfect forecasts...you just have to learn how to do that. I've been teaching aviation weather to pilots for nearly 20 years and I can tell you that weather is likely the least understood of all of the disciplines you need to master as a pilot and affects your flying activity more than any other physical factor.
Here's a common complaint I hear, "the forecasts were horrible...I flew from Airport A to Airport B and the forecast didn't mention thunderstorms at all, but I spent the entire flight dodging them." I usually ask, what forecast they were using. Most of the time, they will tell me they were looking at the TAFs along the route. Well, there's the issue. When I take a look at the actual weather for those airports along that route, none of them reported a thunderstorm.
Effectively, the forecast was spot on. This is because a TAF is a forecast for an airport. It's not a zone or area forecast, but pilots tend to use them as such. The TAF is only valid 5 statute miles from the airport, so if you are using a TAF that's on the other side of a mountain ridge 20 miles from your route, you can have significantly different weather over that ridge.
This is not to say that forecasts are always spot on...they are not. That's why it's important to understand the big picture. That will provide you with the best clues as to the weather you should expect. Yes, TAFs are important and useful if you plan to go to that airport (as a destination or alternate). That's how they should be used...not as en route forecasts.
I always hear the phases, "a no-go decision is never a wrong decision" or "don't beat yourself up if the weather turned out to be better and you could have flown."
These are true, but don't offer the complete story. If you've made a wrong decision where you could have flown, it won't be long before you make a wrong decision where you shouldn't have flown. You can't have your cake and eat it too. So, it could have been due to a bad forecast or it could have been a misunderstanding of how to properly use the forecasts you relied upon (most likely the case). In my experience, I see a lot of situations where the pilot was never properly taught or taught incorrectly.
I can certainly add more to this conversation, but I invite you to watch this free video I created that highlights some important topics that are not taught to pilots in their primary training. You won't be disappointed.
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I watched your video. It's very informative. Actually making me wonder if I really want to finish my IFR rating at all. I know I don't have the time or the smarts to become a competent amateur meteorologist in order to interpret weather products I thought were produced for people like me to be able to make decisions. Seems from the video that even a detailed briefing is inadequate when "rain in the vicinity" is a cause for serious concern. I think I've got some serious thinking to do. ...
__________________
-Joe Wilbur (N520LW)
Phase II - 11/2017
First flight - 8/2017
RV-10 Build Log
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