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  #1  
Old 10-15-2018, 04:54 PM
jwilbur jwilbur is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Culpeper, VA
Posts: 693
Default Weather decisions

I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).

Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.

Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).

If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
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  #2  
Old 10-15-2018, 05:16 PM
Kyle Boatright Kyle Boatright is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 4,218
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I'm a 1400 hour VFR pilot. A lot of that is cross country time. I rarely cancel trips and have only been "stuck" a couple of times over the years.

Flexibility is the key. Identify when the weather window is in your favor and get in the air then. If you run into conditions you don't like, go around, over (if data supports that choice), or land. If you land, wait until the weather gets better and have another go at it. Always leave yourself a way out and don't look at a 180 degree turn as defeat. It is just another path forward.

The other piece of flexibility is that if you absolutely have to be at Grandmother's house by 5:00 on Friday, you either need a great weather forecast or enough time to work around a not so great forecast.

When the weather isn't in your favor, use all of the tools at your disposal. Multiple weather sources for forecast info. Talk to the FSS - they still have some good information that you might not string together otherwise. Use your eyes, use ADS-b or whatever tools you have to put together your best strategy. And again, don't be afraid to change the plan.

Finally, always remember that you don't *have* to get there. Sometimes you just won't or can't make it on time. That's OK. Everyone understands. They would rather you be smart and survive than take unnecessary risks. This isn't life and death stuff unless you make it that way.
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  #3  
Old 10-15-2018, 05:17 PM
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Paddy Paddy is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Prosper, TX
Posts: 373
Default You're doing fine

Sounds to me like you're doing fine for a VFR only pilot, as you get your instrument rating, you'll have a far greater understanding of the big picture when it comes to weather. Here's my experience getting the ticket - My instrument instructor happened to have travelled for years on business in a Piper Arrow, so he had a lot of real world IFR experience. He would call me up when the weather was horrible and say let's fly! It was weather I would never have launched into and I still wouldn't. Now, this guy wasn't reckless, and he wasn't training me to fly in those conditions, rather he trained what to expect when the weather got worse than expected. That was great training and I am very grateful for it. If you can find an instructor to give you plenty of actual IMC time, you'll benefit from it greatly and be able to make consistent go/no go decisions to get the best balance of utility and safety from your airplane.
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  #4  
Old 10-15-2018, 05:21 PM
David Paule David Paule is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Boulder, CO
Posts: 4,435
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For me, if it looks both legal and safe, and with potential places to divert to, I'll go. If the conditions turn out to be worse than I'm comfortable with, I'll either find an alternate or land and wait for it to improve.

Very often the forecast is conservative and the actual isn't so bad. sometimes the actual does force the diversion. Remember, you're not going to the destination - you're seeing how far you can get. While that often is the destination, sometimes it's not.

The only caution here is to be honest with yourself about what you're flying into. And always, and I certainly do mean always, give yourself a solid bombproof way out.

Finally my motto is: "Arrive Alive."

Dave
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  #5  
Old 10-15-2018, 05:24 PM
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JonJay JonJay is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Battleground
Posts: 4,348
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If you have decent onboard weather, like xm, you?re only limited by how long you might get stuck somewhere and/or how good your options are for a 180 or alternate. Just remember, it ain?t perfect either.
I use a combination of METARs, TAF, Local Radar, and internet weather sources. I have XM and Foreflight linked to my iPhone in flight.
I will plan and adjust my route based on the forecast to insure I have the best options for alternates should my path get shut down ahead, or behind (I really try to avoid this). Usually, this means planning something less than a direct if there is any weather concern.

I worry less about ceilings and rain and more about visibility, wind, and convective activity. Some of these are not mutually exclusive.

I am a weather chicken, but my experience has taught me how to manage weather. I don?t really have any minimums short of what is legal, and prudent, in my judgment, but I never lose my option for a 180 unless I know for certain my next alternate or destination is clear. Any doubt, I turn around right now.

The only person that has an answer for you is you. However, if you don?t put yourself out there, with thought, you won?t gain experience.

Remember, the vast majority of weather related accidents are continuing VFR flight into IMC. This is completely avoidable, but we are human animals and tend to not want to make that decision while we still can.
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  #6  
Old 10-15-2018, 05:36 PM
terrye terrye is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada
Posts: 860
Default Weather decisions

I would recommend "Weather Flying" by Bob Buck, either the original or the revised version. Written by a master pilot and weather research pilot with GA and airline experience.
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  #7  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:04 PM
thinkn9a thinkn9a is offline
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 282
Default Very Flexible Routing = VFR

Flexible on timing, path, number of stops, alternative stops,....and delayed execution.

And what the others said about checking and cross checking,...and continuing to confirm you have options in your bag.

P.s. if you haven’t already looked at what Rosie said about how to work cross country flying,.... then do a search and enjoy the read
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Last edited by thinkn9a : 10-15-2018 at 06:11 PM.
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  #8  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:19 PM
BobTurner BobTurner is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Livermore, CA
Posts: 6,797
Default

"It is far, far better to be on the ground, wishing you were up in the sky, than to be up in the sky, wishing you were on the ground."
I don't know the author but it's very true. Never second guess a no-go decision, because, if you never cancel when the wx turns out to be okay, sooner or later you'll go when the wx is not okay.
As others have said, work yourself into wx experience gradually. If you have a solid-gold plan B, you can go and "have a look". Just don't box yourself in, and avoid the temptation that you have to get there.
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  #9  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:36 PM
rockwoodrv9 rockwoodrv9 is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Meridian ID, Aspen CO, Okemos MI
Posts: 2,645
Default web camera

One bit of information that some may forget is highway web cameras, ski area cameras, and even airport cameras. They work for driving, can work for flying too.
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  #10  
Old 10-15-2018, 07:19 PM
dtw_rv6 dtw_rv6 is offline
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Martinsville, IN
Posts: 454
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Forecasts are imperfect, and the only way to know that is to go take a look. If it is legal and above your minimums where you are, then go take a look.

I believe that the key to safe VFR in these wonderful machines is to only have one goal - get back on the ground safely. If I make it out of the pattern on departure that's okay, but I've literally turned around after only 10 minutes into a 1 hour flight.

I've diverted to an alternate location that was 30 minutes away after getting within 10 minutes of my destination - family was waiting at the airport and they had no idea why I was late. However, I was able to call them myself once on the ground safely. We showed up bright and early the next morning and had great stories to tell about our unplanned overnight in Tennessee.

I actually missed my first day of work at a new job that I had just landed. I called my boss at 9pm from a motel on Sunday night. I really expected to be fired (I wasn't).

I can't actually tell you how many times I've taken a flight where conditions didn't match the forecast, not to mention that I've seen "real time" ADSB weather that had NO correlation to the conditions I was flying in.

My point is that you have to fly according to what you see and know at the time, continuously evaluate to determine if you can continue the flight as planned, and then take action as necessary to get back on the ground safely.

Forecasts will be wrong, and you will always run into conditions that are unexpected. If it's better than forecast, you might be driving to your destination under CAVU skies. If it's worse than forecast, you have to change your plans and divert, delay, or get back on the ground asap.

If you wait for a perfect forecast, you will almost never leave home. If you only make one go/nogo decision on a flight, then it will be wrong. Weather and flying machines are dynamic systems that will surprise you often. You have to make continuous go/nogo decisions based on the conditions at hand.

Don

Last edited by dtw_rv6 : 10-15-2018 at 07:23 PM.
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