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  #11  
Old 05-29-2017, 11:19 PM
Captain Avgas Captain Avgas is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrs14855 View Post
If you carefully study the final accident reports the pattern has not changed that much in 50 years. Scud running in low IMC conditions. Stall/spin etc etc.
That may be true for GA generally but it is definitely not true for amateur-built aircraft. And that's the subset in which we operate. The single largest cause of aircraft accidents in the amateur-built category (30%) is engine failure. In fact the amateur-built category has twice as many accidents resulting from engine failure than certificated aircraft. Many builders struggle to instal a safe FWF set-up. And later when they are flying they often struggle to maintain their FWF properly.

Amateur-built aircraft have an accident rate three times higher than comparable factory-built aircraft conducting similar flight operations.

And even more worrying.....the fatal and serious injury rate is more than five times higher in amateur-built aircraft than similar factory-built aircraft.

When I hear pilots talking about the drive to the airport being the most dangerous part of the flight I have to laugh. In particular, flying in the Experimental category is hugely more statistically dangerous than driving.
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Last edited by Captain Avgas : 05-29-2017 at 11:29 PM.
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  #12  
Old 05-30-2017, 03:30 AM
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Piper J3 Piper J3 is online now
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel View Post
It's been said that 91% of statistics are false.
Fake news / alternative facts...
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  #13  
Old 05-30-2017, 04:58 AM
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newt newt is offline
 
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Engine failure doesn't kill pilots.

Failing to make allowances for engine failure (safe off-field landing site within glide distance? Inability to maintain safe flying speed whilst panicking? Lax FWF maintenance practices?) kills pilots.

A risk mitigation approach means being aware of risks, and taking steps to manage them.

If you know that engine failure in E/AB is a risk: Get some professional help with maintaining FWF? Plan your flights so you have safe landing options? Practice forced-landings so you're current and the procedures run on rails? Have a think, take some action. You might not eliminate all the risk, but you can probably decide to attack most of it.

Attack the other accident categories your local regulator publishes breakdowns for too.

For example:

Crashing into buildings, power lines, etc is a GA risk. But you don't need to be down at powerline height or building height, the people who have those accidents CHOOSE to be there. So... don't choose it for yourself. Don't fly beatups. Don't fly low along rivers unless you KNOW there aren't any wires. Operate under procedures which include maintaining runway heading at Vy 'til 500' AGL. Plan a proper arrival pattern which keeps you away from obstacles. You don't hear of airliners having accidents because they're doing low passes over their friend's house, or doing aileron rolls on climbout. You shouldn't either. Exclude yourself from that risk category, make it impossible for you to contribute a tally to that statistic.

VFR into IMC? Equip your aircraft for survival, and get IFR training. Even if you don't get the rating, get enough experience so that you know the risks, know how to maintain control of the aircraft, know how to call for help, know how to turn back into clear air without spiral-diving into the deck. Make sure you have an attitude indicator and a turn coordinator and you know how to use them. Consider an autopilot with its own built-in gyro so you don't have to trust the gyro in your head. Make it impossible for you to contribute a tally to that statistic.

CFIT. Fuel emergencies. Losing control whilst manoeuvring. Losing control on the ground. What actions can you take to minimize the threats to your safety from each category?

Think of each risk factor, and think of what you can do to your operation or your airplane to mitigate it. Extinguish risk where possible, manage it otherwise so you can quantify the residual risk left over, and can make an educated decision about whether you're comfortable about accepting it.

You might decide that you're going to exclude single-engine IFR, or that you need to install better instrumentation, or that you need extra training, or that you need to improve your maintenance standards, or that you need to assert stronger personal minimums. Great. Make the commitment, do what you need to do, manage the residual risk.

As commenters here have said, GA has an accident rate comparable to motorcycles. But unlike motorcycles, where a rider can be wiped off the road by an 18-wheeler through no fault of his own, in aviation we tend to suffer the consequences of our own decisions.

So make decisions. Don't be passive about it. Make choices about the accident categories you're prepared to expose yourself to, and to what extent. Let all the accidents happen to the people who aren't careful, who haven't thought about it, who do stupid things because their friends are watching. Let those people have the accident hours that show up in the stats, because you're actively managing your own safety, and those things can't happen to you anymore.

- mark
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  #14  
Old 05-30-2017, 10:23 PM
Captain Avgas Captain Avgas is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newt View Post
Engine failure doesn't kill pilots.
Maybe technically that's true....it's colliding with the ground after the engine quits that actually kills you. Saying that engine failure doesn't kill pilots is in fact just playing with words.

The reality is that engine failure is the single biggest killer of pilots (and passengers) in the amateur-built category. And the best way to address that problem (and avoid becoming a statistic yourself) is to take whatever practical steps required to minimise the possibility of the engine failing in the first place.

The high engine failure rate in amateur-built aircraft is simply proof that many builders are not up to the task of installing a reliable FWF and many are reluctant to pay for professional assistance. The same goes for maintenance.
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  #15  
Old 05-31-2017, 01:04 AM
Pop Alexandra Pop Alexandra is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pa38112 View Post
I did a similar analysis many years ago. I concluded that GA flying and Motorcycle riding are about the same. Driving in a car is several factors safer - I was only looking at fatalities.
Indeed it is. Most often fatalities don't provide a fair picture as there are more car drivers than GA fliers or motorcycle riders.
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  #16  
Old 05-31-2017, 08:14 AM
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Alan Carroll Alan Carroll is offline
 
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As already noted the comparison between the highway and general aviation data is somewhat problematic for a variety reasons. I would further argue that neither the "per mile" or "per hour" approaches adequately represent how RVs are actually flown. While many of us do fly a lot of cross country, I suspect that the majority of RV flights are relatively short, ending at the same airport they departed. Since we know that at least half of all accidents occur during the takeoff or landing phases of flight, its not exactly clear how accident rates calculated per hour or per mile really relate to RV safety.

An alternative, and sobering perspective comes from the history of fatal RV accidents. According to NTSB there have been about 200 of these total, out of about 9600+ RVs reported on the Van's Aircraft hobbs meter. This means that roughly 1 in 50 of flying RVs has been involved in a fatal accident.
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  #17  
Old 05-31-2017, 08:49 AM
Lote Lote is offline
 
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Default Decisions, decisions

Assuming one is a competent stick (eliminating things like stall/spin, loss of control, runway excursions, etc.) it seems to me that the level of safety in GA is determined by the risk management decisions the pilot makes for the flight scenario the pilot is contemplating.

Somewhere I read that it is a good practice to plan to "always have one more thing you can do" and "always leave yourself an out." I try to use this approach wherever possible to reduce risk.

Example: Contemplating a flight over mountainous terrain in a single engine airplane, do I want to fly the route direct or along valleys with roadways. Flying the valleys may take longer but gives me one more thing I can do--try to land on a road--if the engine quits.

I am hoping that through aggressive risk management I am getting the risk of GA flying down to acceptable levels for me and my loved ones.

LeRoy Johnston RV-6A Esperanza 1200 hours
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  #18  
Old 05-31-2017, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RV7Guy View Post
Thees nubmers are evne moer prolbematic whne yuo cosnider taht 5 out fo 3 piltos aer dyslesic!!!

Yep, but that's KO
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  #19  
Old 05-31-2017, 09:33 AM
RVFlyer RVFlyer is offline
 
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Default Missing Factor

One very important factor has been overlooked….the fun factor. Isn’t it interesting that the amount of fun and enjoyment one gains from each of these is directly proportional to the accident statistics?

Driving a car….. Okay fun on occasion

Driving a large truck….maybe fun the first day or so, after that, not so much.

Commercial air travel…..painful more often than not. The thrill we each enjoyed in the past, largely gone (or maybe that’s just me)

Motorcycles…..good fun, but too many variables out of my control (IMHO)

Certified GA….beats all of the above

EAB GA….. Boom. Nothing compares.

Get out and enjoy life…..right after you read and consider Mark’s (aka: Newt) excellent post above on mitigating risks.

Cheers!
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  #20  
Old 05-31-2017, 10:34 AM
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ppilotmike ppilotmike is offline
 
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Default +1..

..for Newt's post above. It's a good strategy, IMO.
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