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Engine prices pricing you out?

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Kmdpilot

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Just curious if the crazy inflation on aircraft engines is pricing people out of the market? Lycoming seems to be on fire when it comes to prices over the past several years. Looking old ads and it is crazy how much more the price of a new lycoming engine is, especially the thunderbolt. I read somewhere that the RV10 engines are now insanely priced. But they are not he only ones, continental and rotax are also increasing. Vans and other manufacturers have tried their best it seems to keep the cost of kits reasonable, but the question is whether the engine manufacturers are going to eventually hurt business by pricing people out of the market? I remember the video of Greg (overly optimistically) talking about being able to build a complete RV14 for under 100K. I would be surprised if it could be done for under 175K if buying a kit, engine, and avionics today. I know there is still a huge demand and wait list just to get a kit and engine, but with increasing interest rates and such, how many people will bow out? Or are we just at a point like housing and that those that have not gotten in yet are pretty much hosed unless they have huge resources?
 
Was the biggest driver for me selling my RV-10 project 2 years ago. I saw the handwriting on the wall that said by the time I got to the end of that project, it was never gonna happen if I ever wanted to retire.

Now Rotax is trying to sabotage my newly started RV-12IS project. :(

I feel like my wife and I make a good living but a good living does not go near as far as it used to!
 
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Just wait...

It is Sunday March 12. Tomorrow is Monday. Just wait 24 hours and the world may have changed. Just saying.
 
This is part of the reason I'm watching UL Power so closely. They have a bunch of engines that would be perfect on an RV, including an inverted oil/aerobatic offering. If Van's would support them, that would put a lot of competitive pressure on Lycoming and clones. It would do well for total package affordability and the future of Van's business growth/stability. Knocking 10 grand off price of an engine would open up the market and more people can afford the hobby.

Whether the additional kit sales would justify the cost of developing the necessary components to support such a drastically different engine, I don't know. Van's is already swamped with orders and resulting long lead times. I'm sure creating even more demand (that they're already struggling to cope with) isn't high on their priority list. One can dream.
 
I am so glad I started my RV-10 back in 2018, as I'm not sure I could justify the cost it would take to build it today. I just don't understand how an I0-540 can be north of $70K.

I went to the build school at AeroSport Power (which I highly recommend), but I was a bit astonished how simple these engines are. There just isn't a lot to them and nothing to even remotely justify what they cost. Aviation has always been expensive, but if the current rate of price increases continue, I worry it will kill even experimental aviation.
 
Unfortunately none of the engines really are massed produced these days, more like hand built one offs, each of them.

Even a core these days is getting expensive!
 
This is part of the reason I'm watching UL Power so closely. They have a bunch of engines that would be perfect on an RV, including an inverted oil/aerobatic offering. If Van's would support them, that would put a lot of competitive pressure on Lycoming and clones. It would do well for total package affordability and the future of Van's business growth/stability. Knocking 10 grand off price of an engine would open up the market and more people can afford the hobby.

Whether the additional kit sales would justify the cost of developing the necessary components to support such a drastically different engine, I don't know. Van's is already swamped with orders and resulting long lead times. I'm sure creating even more demand (that they're already struggling to cope with) isn't high on their priority list. One can dream.

This would be smart for Vans. Yes, right now they have too many kits on sale with massive backorders. People were flush with cash and time during the pandemic. That will not always be the case and if they want to keep selling kits, the total cost of a flying plane cannot be cost prohibitive. So I would think they would be incentivized to break from their super preference for lycoming unless lycoming starts being a little more competitive. But right now they design their planes, except the 12 for lycoming engines when we all know there are just as good non lycoming engines out there.
 
... I would think they would be incentivized to break from their super preference for lycoming unless lycoming starts being a little more competitive.

Competitive with what, exactly? Other than Continental (which has the same pricing/inflation/lead time issues), there are no proven alternatives.
 
IMHO....

Unfortunately, this is what you get in a capitalist society when one company has pretty much a monopoly. Yes, there are two main companies, but a close look will show that each has a pretty much separate market, thanks to the type certificate process and the nature of building airplanes. The owners and CEOs end up setting an unrealistically high profit goal, but don't make it. So they raise prices. But that reduces demand, fewer engines to cover overhead costs, so their profits go down instead of up. So they raise prices more! with the not surprising results. This death spiral happened to the airframe manufacturers back in the 1980-90's. I guess these genius CEO's just never learn.
 
Certainly did. I was going to start a -10 but engine prices (and kit prices) have priced me out. I'm now looking to get into a club when I need a 4 seater.
 
I have no crystal ball to see the future, but I have been around a long time, and can tell folks about the past…. For many years, people who built airplanes rarely put new motors on them - they found a core and rebuilt it, or just found a running engine off a wreck and hung it on their airframe. Proven motor with lots of hours on it - and a majority of people used the airplanes for local flying, rarely putting more than a few hundred hours on them - so a thousand or fifteen-hundred hour motor was perfect for them. It got you in teh air for a reasonable amount of money.

When I started my -8 in the early part of this century, I thought about a used motor, but at that time, a new O-360 could be had for a little less than $20K, and it made sense to just go new. But as prices started creeping up, we all wondered when that would be reasonable. Now with prices soaring out of control, I have a feeling that used engines might once again become a thing. How many hours do you REALY expect to fly your creation? And if you exceed that, rebuilding is a good project (unless parts prices continue to go out of control - in which case, the industry is really in trouble).

Yes, alternative engines are out there, but adding a significantly lighter engine top an engine design might sound good until you realize that it has to go farther out front, which can mess up yaw stability. Airplanes are designed around specific engines, and changing them can have effects that you might not predict.

So watch that used engine market if you’re concerned - there are only so many storm-damaged airplanes out there…..

Paul
 
I am keeping an eye for a future RV15 project and the price of engine is given me a second thought.

On the subject of traditional engine, is there a reason for not using Continental on our RVs? They are certainly competitive priced in the used engine market
 
We need a recession here soon to get things back in check. Prices keep going up, but it doesn't seem to make any dent in demand. This is basic economics. Lyc saw an opportunity to grossly inflate prices without ANY impact on demand. This is a tempting opportunity in a free economy. Many folks worry about the damage to their long term reputation from doing this, but others feel insulated from it. As long as companies like Lyc have a one year wait list for their engines, I expect the increases just will not stop. Its not like the aviation folks feel bad about setting prices WELL above what anyone would expect.

At some point the craziness will stop and that one year wait list will change to a warehouse full of engine parts that no one wants to buy. The good news is that the majority of these crazy increases are just straight profit and prices will come back down to something more in line with the inflationary delta on top of the old prices. If an IO-360 gets to $50K and stays there, you can expect a resurgence in alternative engines. Look at the thread from the guy with the sidewinder install also read the recent EAA article about the guy in Indiana playing with the Honda L engines. There is still a path for affordable homebuilts; It just won't be erector set simplicity - just like the old days. Also remember that a decent percent of kits never get built. A year or two after the recession hits, I expect a large supply and small demand for un-finished kits. I have no doubt that the crazy increase in kit sales will directly translate to a crazy increase in un finished kits once the frenzy ends. Lets not forget that a year or two ago we could sell a two year old car for the price of a new car. No longer true.

Its all supply and demand based and at the moment we are more than a bit unbalanced in our sector. Fully convinced that is a short term trend and not the shape of things to come.

Larry
 
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Like many, I went the used route. No regrets so far. According to my photo collection metadata, it was 4 years ago in April we did the engine: core case, crank, rods, accessory case and gears all yellow tagged - $10k. New Superior cylinders and cam, Bendix injection overhaul, fee for A&P to supervise it all going together: another $15k. Add on what I paid for alternators, starter, SDS CPi2 ignition, governor and I was able to get a fresh overhauled IO-540 on the nose for right at $30k.

Like Paul said, I expect this conglomeration of parts to serve me for well beyond the hours I will ask of it under my ownership. The experience of assembling the engine with my A&P friend literally over my shoulder was another gratifying plus. The price of a new engine if I were building today would give me pause... probably beyond my reach.
 
Back in the old days there was not all these NEW Lycs to buy. by Lycoming, Superior, ECI. It was used or Lycoming only through Van's (which by todays prices a bargain).

I bought a used O360 from a Piper Apache twin upgraded to 180HP that was parted out for a tiny little accident. I overhauled it myself with help from an AI, and sending parts major components to repair station.

I was into it for less than $10K...long block, Minus: Carb Overhaul, Ignition, Prop Gov, Starter and Alternator. I got the engine with firewall forward. I sold off: Feathering Prop & Gov, exhaust, big starter, big alternator.... made some cash.

The thing is get a CHEAP (but good) core. Don't pay too much. Better find a used but airworthy running engine with history, logs running recently. Often the best source for these running O320's or O360's are otherRV'ers upgrading to the latest greatest fire breathing angle valve IO360/ IO390.

If you go to big salvage dealers like Wentworth they want a premium for a core. If two builders need O540's or IO540's for their RV10's, look to buy a Piper Aztec (twin with 540's). You might get the whole thing for $10K. By the time you part airframe out you might make your money back. It will still cost $25k to $35K an engine to overhaul and accessorize.... Two fresh engines for the price of one.
 
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By the time you part airframe out you might make your money back.

A few years ago I was looking at the "buy an airframe and part it out" option, but realized that the costs (time and money) of shipping/storage/breakdown/disposal of the rest of the airframe would come out to about the same as if I just sat and kept saving up money. The equation may have changed by this point, though.

Ended up buying a torn-down, inspected, and tagged core off Barnstormers and built the engine up with the help of an A&P friend. Haven't run it yet, so fingers crossed...
 
The engine prices priced me out of building an RV-10. I really wanted a four seater but the prices just got too much. Backed off to an RV-9 would have gone with an RV-14 but I don't want to invest that much time and money in an aircraft with an engine that requires 100LL until the fuel mess gets straightend out. Also if you are talking about getting a core and having an overhaul shop rework it you should check the prices there as they have also skyrocketed. Talked to one of them last year and the prices of the components had gone up by 30% in a year. A new 540 is like 75k and a completely overhauled one by a shop is north of 60k from what I was told
 
Just go to MacDonald's and see the sign out front advertising for new employees.
It reads like base wages of $16.25 and a manager starting at $21.25 per hour.
Ya think those HIGH wages doesn't translate to higher engine prices.
I'm going to have a birthday in a few days and it will be number 72.
It's all just bigger numbers.
BUT, I will agree that engines have jumped ahead real fast.
I used to build houses for 42 years, quit two years ago.
Just sold a 2000 foot ranch for $575,000.00 that I would have been glad to get $300,000.00 two years ago when I built it had I wanted to sell it. (I turned it into a short term rental)
Oh ya I offered it out for $40,000.00 BELOW local market so's to sell it fast.
We all realize price increases and have to live with them.
My three cents worth. Art
STILL !!!!!!! $16.25 starting wage at a burger joint. Go figure?
 
Compliants vs AttaBoy

2012 bundle show price YIO-360-M1B $26,200
2019 bundle show price YIO-360-M1B $27,700

According to the Bureau of Labor and Satiistics
2012 dollars $26,200= 2019 dollars 29,341

Since Lycoming was charging $27,700 in 2019 it actually got cheaper. Apples to apples they should have been charging $29,341.

No one was complaining when there prices barely moved and they increased LESS than inflation. Let that sink in.
 
Had I not started building 7 years ago and bought my brand new engine from a guy here on VAF 4 years ago who sold off his project theres no way I would be doing this. I got a brand new Mattituck IO360 with 2 pmags for less than those 2012 prices listed above. It hurt at the time, but wow am I glad now that I went that route instead of a core like I was trying to find. I feel really sorry for those trying to finish off a plane now.
 
If I shop for a used engine from a twin, does it matter if the engine is from the left hand side or right hand side?

And what is needed to convert an engine to spin the normal way in a single engine aircraft?
 
Which side

Only if it's a counter rotating airplane. Converting a counter rotating engine is not practical.
 
Yep, engines have gotten expensive to the point of being prohibitively so. I bought one last year before the 3/15 price increase, if I bought it this year it would be $9K more and it's just a 4 cyl. Oof...

The same type of thing has happened with automotive crate engines, just at a lower overall level. These are the facts. The fix to a situation like this is to make it more friendly for companies to build and sell such machines, meaning less regulation, fewer roadblocks to market entry, relief from frivolous lawsuits, things like that. Unfortunately the trend seems to be exactly the opposite; more regulation, limited fuel options, increased, or no change in liability, higher energy costs, etc.

If something doesn't change, aviation will slowly die.

Tim
 
There are so many reasons I want my own new experimental amateur built aircraft, but if anything causes me to stop my current RV-14 build it will be engine cost. Right now I'm expecting to have to sell my Cessna 170 and that will pay for the engine and avionics. I'm dreading the day I have to place that order.
 
The "cheapest" engine I see on Van's site is $40,000! Yes, unless these prices drop back for some reason, this will eventually kill the homebuilt airplane world for the average guy. Just one more (of many) wonderful aspects of American life snuffed out. What a sad, race-to-the-bottom trajectory we're on.
 
I expect this conglomeration of parts to serve me for well beyond the hours I will ask of it under my ownership. The experience of assembling the engine with my A&P friend literally over my shoulder was another gratifying plus. The price of a new engine if I were building today would give me pause... probably beyond my reach.[/QUOTE]

I think there will end up being downward pressure on used prices as well though. As new engine prices keep going up faster than the rate of the national debt, people look for used engines increasing the demand on that market and then increasing the demand on overhaul shops, increasing the cost of both. In some areas of the country it is already difficult to get a timely annual or an overhaul as is. But, like all things aviation, it will cycle up and down. Just takes time out of the pandemic for all those with kits to realize they are not working on them anymore. All those newly minted PPLs from the pandemic don't have time to fly. I think the amount of students gunning for the airlines will also create over saturation as well. All of these factors will most likely (hopefully) lead to a correction in GA.
 
From Forbes Apr 28, 2021,

When Textron Aviation announced production of a 75th anniversary edition of the Beechcraft Bonanza earlier this month, it reminded aviation enthusiasts that the piston-single classic is the longest continuously produced aircraft in history. But the 2022 75th anniversary Bonanza’s likely million-dollar price tag is also a reminder that, in the eyes of many pilots, general aviation aircraft manufacturers are pricing themselves out of the market.

In aviation forums and at small airports, aircraft owners and pilots offer a familiar refrain. The prices of general aviation (GA) airplanes are unsustainable.

In reaction to an article on the special edition Bonanza, one commenter wrote:

“In 1970 a Cessna 172 was 1.3 times the average salary in the U.S. and a Bonanza was 5 times the average. Today it is 6 times the average salary for a 172 and 14 times the average salary for a Bonanza. Anyone else wonder how [the manufacturers] are staying in business?”

According to Plane & Pilot magazine, the price of a new Cessna 172 was $12,500 in 1970 and the average salary in the United States was $6,186. In 2021 dollars the 1970 sticker would equate to about $85,000.

But with the current ask for a new 172 at $432,000 minimum, the ubiquitous Skyhawk has even outpaced the Bonanza (which cost around $50,000 new in 1970) in terms of cost growth.

Piper’s venerable Cherokee, the latest edition of which - the Piper 100i - debuted at the recent Sun ‘n Fun airshow in Florida, cost about $13,000 in 1970. Today, the price for one ranges from $259,000 to $285,000. Chinese-owned Cirrus Aircraft has only been making production piston-singles since 1995 but the list price for its parachute-equipped, fixed-gear SR-22 was $755,000 in 2020.
 
IO-360-B1B

I finished my RV-7A in 2008 with an engine I bought from Matituck on Long Island in 2007. The cost was $35K. Since I'm now running that engine past TBO, and will eventually need to replace it, I've purchased a replacement Lycoming IO-360-B1B via Vans (special order) for just over $48K (August delivery date if it doesn't slip) I'm expecting to be able to sell the original engine core for at least the new engine cost increase.

The original engine is still running fine, has great compression numbers, doesn't burn more than a quart of oil in 25 Hrs, has no oil leaks. I'll probably get another 500 - 1000 hrs out of it or more! I'm buying the new engine now (with long term storage) so I have it when I need it.
 
From Forbes Apr 28, 2021,

When Textron Aviation announced production of a 75th anniversary edition of the Beechcraft Bonanza earlier this month, it reminded aviation enthusiasts that the piston-single classic is the longest continuously produced aircraft in history. But the 2022 75th anniversary Bonanza’s likely million-dollar price tag is also a reminder that, in the eyes of many pilots, general aviation aircraft manufacturers are pricing themselves out of the market".

Just my opinion and sort of off topic: the inflation of most things, housing, cars, GA planes, etc is really driven by administrative and executive bloat. One poster earlier complains about a McDonald's worker making 16-20 bucks and hour as an easy excuse without understanding the actual problems. The issue is that over the years, we have seen corporations posting better and better profits, better exec comp, more execs and more admin bloat. We see it in nearly any corporate level business from Textron, higher education, healthcare, banking, etc. I work in healthcare and it has never been more apparent in that industry. Think about all of the people with their hand in the pie and think about he compensation of those people. And I am not even talking about the doctors and nurses. The hospital has multiple executives and each executive has a team of administrators working for them. All making high salaries and most of them not providing a billable service. That is just the hospital. Now think of the pharma companies and all the sales people, the marketing execs, the heads of HR, the financial officers, the consultants, and we haven't even gotten to the c-suite yet. All making high salaries. Medical device is the same. Add in the insurance companies. So, the next time you see your doc for a minor infection and see a bill for $500 or more and the prescription costs $100, think about how much of those costs are going to pay all of the administrative folks with the insurance company, the clinic/hospital, the pharmacy, the PBM, the delivery company that got the med to the pharmacy. Back in the day, many, many days ago, you went to your doc and they had a small office. Their overhead was the office and their nurse who also answered the phones. You went to the pharmacy that was a local pharmacy with low costs to operate. You paid the people that provided you the service. Now we have to pay for all of the people that have squeezed on in behind the scenes also wanting you to pay for them too, and they want to be paid well, many paid better than the doc, the nurse and the pharmacist.
My point is, it is not the 16/hr worker whose min wage has not kept up with inflation over the past several decades that is killing us. It is the massive growth of administrative bloat in industries like healthcare, higher education, and corporate America that is killing us. Instead of having a lot of smaller companies that can work efficiently and compete keeping costs down, we have once again allowed for the growth of mega corporations that require more and more people to keep them running. The bigger they get, the less cost effective they become by needing to hire more people that do not directly contribute to production of the product and only work to serve the giant corporate beast. This is why a cessna today costs way more compared to average income than back in the day. The average wage growth has fallen well short of the growth in executive and administrative comp as well as corporate profits for decades. And this is before we consider frivolous lawsuits.
Again, just my onion.
 
Prices

In the mid80's I attended a fly in at Lock Haven PA, the former home of Piper Aircraft. Quite a few retired Piper employees were there, some former management. I was sitting at a picnic table shared by some former Piper management. The subject of prices came up. The Cheyenne I and II sold well because of pricing and performance. One of the Piper people made the following statement: every year we raised the Cheyenne prices whether it was justified or not. The airplanes continued to sell well. Sales did not slow but one day they STOPPED.
I was managing two Cheyenne II's at the time so that is etched in my memory.
Different take; in 1975 Wag Aero was selling Lycoming 0 360A4A OUTRIGHT for just over $4,000.
 
Is there a darker side to this?

We are all talking about the cost of engines but, are we considering what is potentially happening to the pilot supply? I got into flying a long time ago with a Cessna 150 and the goodwill of the owner who would take me out with him. Now people who are looking to become pilots are paying close to $200 an hour around my West Suburban Chicago area for 172 plus the cost of the instructor. There are not too many young people who can handle those costs and the costs of raising a young family. I hope we can keep the freedom of flight alive!
 
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From Forbes Apr 28, 2021,

It is the massive growth of administrative bloat in industries like healthcare, higher education, and corporate America that is killing us.

I agree, except the corporate America part. it is the massive administrative bloat that exists in industries that are massively regulated, like healthcare. It does not exist in the industries that are left to compete on our own. In those industries, the incentive is to get more efficient (less admin) and more customer focused, both of which lead to increased profits. In highly regulated industries you have to have armies of administrators to make sure you are compliant, you are audited, and you can accurately report your compliance. Like the airplane business.

Tim
 
What a depressing thread.

Sounds depressing, but consider our history. I think it is a simple supply/demand scenario. It’s been that way for more than 100 years. Right now, demand for products (like aircraft engines) is high, so prices follows that trend. When demand for those products falls, so will prices - or for aircraft engines, will at least remain flat - for a considerable time, because they don’t want to lay off workers, and they will end up with stock that has a limited shelf life.
Timing is everything, but buying product in an economy that is demand centric is a tough reality. As long as we are able to enjoy the freedoms we have in this country, including personal flying, we cannot loose, no matter what it costs for that engine.
 
Wait till lycoming jumps on the latest bandwagon. Pay 50k for an engine and if you want to start it, you gotta pay a subscription fee.
 
All true (what Tim said above). Massive regulation and the attendant frustrations with same are what pushed me into retirement years before the physical demands of medicine would have bested my ability to meet them with ease. I reached the point where the rewards were no longer worth it, and the calculus had shifted to favor spending unlinmited time with my family - on a more limited budget than we had ever planned on. I could not afford to get into aviation now if I were not already established in it, and may have to exit long before declining skill and reflexes would have forced me out.

I blame myself and my colleagues from my generation and the one before. Too busy with our noses in the everyday grind, we settled for the good life while our profession was being appropriated and dismantled by others. We let the politicians win - and everyone else, especially our patients, lost. Of course there is trickle-down to those who build, maintain, sell and instruct in forked-tail doctor-killers. They lose, too, in the end.
 
We are all talking about the cost of engines but, are we considering what is potentially happening to the pilot supply? I got into flying a long time ago with a Cessna 150 and the goodwill of the owner who would take me out with him. Now people who are looking to become pilots are paying close to $200 an hour around my West Suburban Chicago area for 172 plus the cost of the instructor. There are not too many young people who can handle those costs and the costs of raising a young family. I hope we can keep the freedom of flight alive!

I did some numbers on that a few years ago, stimulated by someone posting an old newspaper ad into a facebook thread that said you could get pilot training for $12 per hour.

Each country has statistical agencies that keep track of economics. In the US I think it's NBER, where I live it's the Australian Bureau of Statistics. One of the statistical series produced by the ABS is "Weekly full-time pre-tax earnings" with crosstabs for things like State of residence, gender, age, and so on. The ABS has been publishing that series on a quarterly basis since the 1950s.

So when I scrolled the stats back to the publication date of the newspaper ad, I could see that the $12 hourly rate on offer for flight training was about 15% of mean full-time pre-tax weekly earnings!

That's quite a bit! 1/7th of a typical weekly salary going into one hour of flight training! Suddenly $12 doesn't seem so great, huh.

So then I wound the clock forward, and picked the most recent data from the same statistical series, and compared it to the prices on websites of flight schools in the Sydney area.

And what do you know? Current prices (at the time of evaluation) were about 14.8% of mean full-time pre-tax weekly earnings!

That is: The hundreds of dollars per hour price tag that people complain about now is arguably marginally more affordable than the $12 per hour rate from the '60s or '70s or whatever it was.

My takeaway from this desk-analysis exercise is that aviation has always been expensive, and we're all immensely privileged to be able to afford it and enjoy it. And for my entire lifetime, people have been consistently grizzling about how expensive it's getting with all the prices rising thanks to inflation, while an hour of flight training time has always been within spitting distance of 15% of an average salary.


- mark
 
Back in the day (Tony Bingelis era) people would build an RV with a used engine, wooden prop, salvaged instruments, paint it themselves and make their own cushions. They learned something, made new friends and had fun.

Now the norm has become a new (maybe Thunderbolt) engine, chrome rocker covers, CSU, dual Garmin panel (outsourced to somebody else), custom paint job (also outsourced), custom interior (outsourced) so it's no wonder it costs more. But there's no reason that it must be done that way. There are many decisions that a builder can make for an RV to be affordable without losing any of the true benefits.
 
Sounds depressing, but consider our history. I think it is a simple supply/demand scenario. It’s been that way for more than 100 years. Right now, demand for products (like aircraft engines) is high, so prices follows that trend. When demand for those products falls, so will prices - or for aircraft engines, will at least remain flat - for a considerable time, because they don’t want to lay off workers, and they will end up with stock that has a limited shelf life.
Timing is everything, but buying product in an economy that is demand centric is a tough reality. As long as we are able to enjoy the freedoms we have in this country, including personal flying, we cannot loose, no matter what it costs for that engine.

I understand and agree, Scott. I'm just sad about being on this forum for a few years, finally coming close to pulling the trigger on buying a kit, and having to possibly spend that much money on an engine. Hopefully, a good used engine can be had at a reasonable price when the time comes.
 
Cost have gone up from the old days.
I had my Private certificate back when I received this quote to expand my skills, still was costly for the times.
 

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I tell anyone interested getting into aviation -- whether it's for a career or just as an avocation -- to do it now because it will cost more in the future.

I also mention that I've never heard of anyone getting into the game and later saying they regretted it.

As for the cost, I paid a total of $4,000 for my private back in '98. Admittedly I was a pretty fast learner. But that same certificate at the same school in the same plane now costs closer to $25,000. I'm not sure where I'd find the resources to obtain all the certificates and ratings in today's environment. It's tough.

Having said that, I just bought an IO-360 powered RV-6 with wingtip extended fuel tanks, a new Lemke leather interior, a new Garmin G3X panel, autopilot, electronic ignition, etc for $65k. Maybe I'm just lucky. But there are ways to fly if that's your goal.

When I was a full-time instructor, I had an aerobatic student who also happened to be a homeless person. I wrote about it here if you'd like to read the story. I think that guy, plus Jessica Cox (the pilot who was born without arms), are major inspirations when I get the feeling that I "can't" do something.

--Ron
 
Cost have gone up from the old days.
I had my Private certificate back when I received this quote to expand my skills, still was costly for the times.

Okay, look at the US Census Bureau: Household income in 1970.

"The median money income of households in the United States was $8,730 in 1970." (per annum)

Your quote to get a private certificate is about 12.5% of that.

In 2019, the US real median household income was $63,688. 12.5% of that is about $8000.

AOPA thinks a private pilot's license can cost between $6000 and $20000. It's probably going to cost more in the Bay Area than it will in rural Kentucky, but Bay Area pilots are probably earning more than the US median income too.

I'm obviously disconnected from the US flight training market, but it's at least arguable that the price of pilot training might have roughly tracked incomes since 1970.

At the very least, there's pause for thought about how extraordinarily expensive $1095 for a PPL was in 1970. A private pilot license costs something in the same rough order of magnitude as a new hatchback, and it always has. It comes down to opportunity and priority, and we've all been lucky enough to be able to make some decisions where others can't. It's an accident of fate that any of us were born in a time or place where that magnitude of wealth is even possible.

- mark
 
We are all talking about the cost of engines but, are we considering what is potentially happening to the pilot supply? I got into flying a long time ago with a Cessna 150 and the goodwill of the owner who would take me out with him. Now people who are looking to become pilots are paying close to $200 an hour around my West Suburban Chicago area for 172 plus the cost of the instructor. There are not too many young people who can handle those costs and the costs of raising a young family. I hope we can keep the freedom of flight alive!

I am surprise that the local flight school is busier than ever. There are many young people getting their trainings because they all want to pursue the airline route. The high pay in today's airlines is making it easier to swallow the high cost of training.
 
Not something people consider but that high pay is a reason to let you go. Advancement in systems and automation ultimately are working towards NO pilot in the cockpit. The FO will be the first to go as a stepping stone. The need for pilots will be cut in half. If I were 15-18 I’d be looking elsewhere for a career, or at least supplementing it with IT and or Engineering. By 2050 you won’t be able to be just a pilot.

Cost is cost and it’s all relative. When I started flying a Private Cert was about $3000. I made $4.25/hr bagging groceries. As a high school student with no bills that was a mountain of money.

For what it’s worth, when I priced out the build circa 2020 pre-covid the engine and fixed pitch prop combo was about $33k. I decided since I wanted it to be exactly what I wanted I’d upgrade to c/s prop. $38k combo.

Engine alone turned out to be $40k+.

Over runs are expected and a budget is wise. Much like a house, just because the bank says you can afford $500k house doesn’t mean you should budget and buy that. You should probably be looking at $400k and below. If an aircraft is already at your max budget it may be wiser to find a less expensive alternative or raise enough cash to change your situation to exceed the purchase by a larger margin.
 
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Really?

"...Not something people consider but that high pay is a reason to let you go. Advancement is systems and automation ultimately are e working towards NO pilot in the cockpit. The FO will be the first to go as a stepping stone. The need for pilots will be cut in half. If I were 15-18 I’d be looking elsewhere for a career, or at least supplementing it with IT and or Engineering. By 2050 you won’t be able to be just a pilot..."

Time will tell but I think you are wrong. Let's look at the "success" of autonomous cars, thus far. You needn't look very hard to find tragic accidents. You also needn't look far to find remote hacking of car systems.

Now let's apply that to a 200,000 pound aircraft going 500 mph with a couple hundred people on board...you get the picture.
 
Yes, the price of everything has gone up, but sometimes Pogo was right, particularly here in the RV world. Think real, real hard about what you really need in the airplane.

Seriously, a person can have a lot of fun without three screens and carbon fiber constant speed.

You can cut your own panel. No lasers or CNC.

Learn to shoot paint and run a buffer. Big money there.

No build skills at all? Ask yourself if you want to fly, or sit on the ground and complain. I bought a really nice homebuilt this weekend, excellent quality, 10 years old, glass, ADSB, yada yada. Only goes 100 mph, and it's not sexy, but an excellent flyer, and the whole thing cost less than most of the new engines folks figure they must have.

Point is, you might get priced out of a loaded RV-xx, but you're not priced out of flying, and you can always make more/save more and play the big dog game later.
 
Yes… I do think that the price of engines will price some out of Experimental aviation. And I don’t think that Van’s is helping those trying to get in cheap. As someone returning to the field from the sidelines… it has been quite a shock. I was pretty excited back when LSA’s were being developed. I’ve flown the RV-12 and really enjoyed it. But the cost of a Rotax has pushed it up to at or above the price of building a 7 or 9. And I’ve come to acknowledge my need for speed… and am looking towards a 9A.

However, it appears that Van’s has lost its way a bit as it pushed out the excellent, but expensive larger RV14 - designed around a very expensive IO-390. And they appear to be doing the same with the new RV15. No longer does it feel like affordable total performance. More like Tim the Toolman - go big or go home.

I’d like to rebuild a motor and put it into a 9A. But it’s really hard to want to start building an old school kit at my age… having seen how nicely (and quickly!) the 12 and 14 kits go together along with their CAD supported documentation. ( Yeah… I know, in the old days… you bent your own Longerons, penciled out all the hole locations, and walked to your hangers, uphill, in the snow… both ways! :p I just need to vent. :eek: ) It would be nice to see some support from the factory for the economy class builders out there. We’re the guys in the shop rebuilding an old O-320 to burn mogas. Give us an upgraded, simplified to build airframe like the 12/14. I’d even give up a couple knots for pulled rivets. The latest/greatest 200+ HP engines out there are definitely out of my budget.
 
Not something people consider but that high pay is a reason to let you go. Advancement in systems and automation ultimately are working towards NO pilot in the cockpit. The FO will be the first to go as a stepping stone. The need for pilots will be cut in half.
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You're kidding, right? A jet carrying 300 passengers over populated areas with no pilot? Even IF technology could do that, I don't think more than 1% of the population would get on that plane. As to the FO, sure, technology could reduce workload enough to eliminate the role (likely there already), but you must consider redundancy and cross checking. Again, with 300 people in the back you need to account for human incapacitation or even human error. This is not a school bus that will just drift off the road when the driver ceases to function due to a stroke; it will slam into a city at who knows how many 100's of MPH. Death toll could be in the thousands. In my state, they still require school busses to stop at signaled RR crossings because some idiot ran a buss in front of a train 50 years ago.

While we may see automated drones delivering packages, that simply doesn't translate to large jets filled with 100's of passengers. And I can all but promise you that one of those automated drones will crash into some little old lady and that will be the end of that for at least another decade. Just look at nuclear power. Two mishaps and we haven't seen one built in decades, even with the global warming issues. Pretty sure this is much further off than it seems from all of the development we are seeing in that area. Sure it works great for dropping bombs on our enemies, but that is a long way from Americans accepting those things flying over their homes.
 
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Not something people consider but that high pay is a reason to let you go. Advancement in systems and automation ultimately are working towards NO pilot in the cockpit. The FO will be the first to go as a stepping stone. The need for pilots will be cut in half. If I were 15-18 I’d be looking elsewhere for a career, or at least supplementing it with IT and or Engineering. By 2050 you won’t be able to be just a pilot.

The Germanwings suicide/mass murder guaranteed that there will never be a single pilot cockpit for the airlines, and probably freight, no matter how much airline execs want it.


As far as being priced out, the elephant in the room is a place for your stuff. I bought my hangar 4 years ago for 55k. A year later one next door sold for 70k. Last week one behind me sold for 250k, same hangar. Rentals are about 1k/month. Who can afford that when its 2-3k/month for a rental apartment?
 
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