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2009 Fatal RV Accidents
Every year I compile the data on Fatal Warbird accidents. I have over 20 years collected.
Today was the day. I went to the NTSB site and searched for fatal accidents. Normally that yields just over 300 reports. This year it was 258. There may be a few end of the year stragglers come in, but doubtful any are warbirds. It figures, flying was down, so were the accidents. This year there were 6 fatal Warbird accidents that claimed 7 lives... The average over the last 20 years is about 10. Way too many!!!! Last year for a presentation I did for the MN RVators I searched the RV fatals and found 10 accidents with 11 fatalities in 2008. For '09 I found 12 Fatal accidents claimed 18 lives in RVs this year.... This is not a good trend. The next logical question is, "What caused all these accidents?" I did not read all the reports. I don't know what lessons they hold but should some seek to learn those lessons, do it with this admonition. Read accident reports looking for the things that you do, not looking for the things that you don't do.... Looking for the things that the accident victim did, that you do not, is a counter-productive exercise in rationalization. John and Martha King talk about, "The Big Lie." Telling ourselves that flying is safe is a lie. It is not, it is dangerous, and we should approach it that way. Flying GA airplanes is about as dangerous as riding Motorcycles on the highway. And while I don't have exact numbers, flying RVs is more dangerous than that. Don't take this as a suggestion that anyone stop flying, but simply as a push to acknowledge the risks honestly and act appropriately. Fly Safe in '10 Doug Rozendaal |
Thanks.
Well stated.
Thank for the info. I enjoy hearing this type of stat and trying to learn from others mistakes as I read through reports....so I dont become one. Those that dont ever make dumb mistakes are in denial. I just try to learn and always work at being a better pilot. Cheers |
I was just thinking today whether I should do the 2009 year in review for accidents. In recent years, the rate of fatalities per flying RV has been pretty consistent. I had 15 killed in '08, but I might've include Rockets; I can't recall.
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I've got 17 this year. Not counting those who might have registered as something other than "RV".
http://tinyurl.com/ye8lm9f Phil |
Make that 18.... Bob Milne's accident wasn't included.
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?...09LA236&rpt=fa Phil |
As the number of flying RV's increase, its to be expected that the total number of RV accidents increases as well. Vans RV meter is over 6,500 right now, just a couple short years ago I think it was around 4,000.
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Does anybody think that is an acceptable statistic? We all want to believe these are great little safe airplanes, and they are, but the statisitics show they are much more likely to crash than a spam can... What gives? That is the hard question and requires an honest and uncomfortable converstation with the pilot in the mirror..... |
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Who hasn't seen an RV pilot do a low altitude roll on takeoff or after a buzz job? Dish the roll and die, that's how it works. Same thing with formation flying - it's a high risk activity and when you get it wrong, you're prone to die. We've had at least 3 formation related fatalities in the last few years. Oftentimes, it ain't the airplane, it's the nut attached to the stick. |
I once read somewhere that there are three main causes which account for 90% of accidents: Approach/departure stalls, fuel mismanagement, and continued VFR into instrument conditions. These accidents are very, very preventable. Eliminating the accidents that fall into these three categories from all fatal accidents, you take flying danger from being mid-way between car and motorcycle travel to way better than by car.
Two RV fatalities I'm familiar with from the past year fall into bucket #1. Both stalled on approach, one was off-field when the engine quit. |
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I believe we could make flying EA as safe as cars. A good first step would be to knock off all of that nonsense way outside the regs. Then instead of spending resources cataloging and analyzing that repetitious bucket we can concentrate on stuff that requires a bit more gray matter, like making fuel and fuel systems more reliable. |
Flying through Thunderstorms doesn't help either...
This RV-7A lost the tail-feathers in either turbulance or the Airsheen exceeded the VNE and they fluttered off:
The flight track then turns back northwestward and penetrates the area of thunderstorms. A witness stated that the clouds in the vicinity of the crash site were overcast about 200 feet with light rain and distant thunder. Examination of the airplane revealed the vertical stabilizer and rudders separated and were not located. Examination of a tail cone section revealed fracture surfaces on the front and rear spar, and the rear doubler assembly exhibited slant-fracture features consistent with ductile overload due to exceeding the design limits. There was no evidence of preexisting damage due to fatigue or corrosion. Updated at Dec 15 2009 10:25AM In Florida...T storm country. Even a fully aerobatic Aircraft can't fight a T Storm. These reports are sad... :( and telling. |
One thing I've noticed over the year and half I've been participating in VAF Forums is that an awful lot of encouragement for bad behavior happens here.
Specifically when someone shoots live video of them flying an RV-#, posts it on youtube and then posts the link on VAF. So we all click on the link and see a beautifully constructed RV-# flying on a beautiful day conducting low level (less than 200ft I'd say) aerobatics with another RV-# in trail shooting the film. Then we see other video of formations of RV's flying very low level over the countryside, rivers and lakes. All the comments in the thread give the pilots tons of encouragement and atta-boys for having such a nice airplane and flying so WELL. Although I've never commented after watching, I wish I had. Then next one I see however will include a comment like this - "Hey, you don't own that airspace and you have no right to endanger the public, or yourself for that matter, not to mention you jeopardize all of our rights to fly as freely as we do. So knock it off or something really diplomatic like that :) Peer Policing can be a powerful force. CDR Ken Kopp, USN |
one fatality in florida......
[quote=delusional;392506]Okay so what percentage were low-level aerobatics, buzz jobs or other blatantly "unauthorized" maneuvers?
i know of one fatality in florida in 09. low level buzz job over a group of people. :confused: |
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Despite the concerns, I really enjoy some of the videos. I think of "Tree Top Flyer" in particular. No way I'm going to criticize that guy. He knows what he is doing, legal or not. I'm expecting a lot of response to your post. |
I finished my CFI renewal a couple of months ago and one of the topics in the course was the fact that "maneuvering" flying accounts for the highest (25%) of fatal GA accidents. Followed by descent/approach, weather, and takeoff/climb. A significant percentage of the fatal "maneuvering" accidents are identified as having these primary causes:
These numbers are from the Nall Report and I believe they are from 2006. I watched a T-34 do some pretty spectacular buzzing after departing a fly-in breakfast a couple of days ago. I would guess that a couple of the pullouts were within 25 ft. of the ground and directly over people, airplanes and structures. I have no idea if the pilot was trained or proficient in these types of maneuvers, but I could not help but think about these statistics as I watched. So, what does all this mean? Well, I think B25Flyer pretty much has it right. "We have met the enemy and he is us!" |
T-shirt philosophy
![]() John Clark ATP, CFI EAA Flight Advisor RV8 N18U "Sunshine" KSBA |
I always enjoy your posts, Doug.
Ken: You're spot on. |
I am with Ken on this one - we do tend to encourage unsafe behavior when we Ooh and Ahh over things that are actually illegal. I have posted a few aerobatic videos on YouTube - all shot at thousands of feet of altitude, usually above the clouds (that's how high!) because frankly, I have no training on low level aerobatics, and even if I did there are very specific conditions under which they can legally be performed.
When I see someone doing something spectacular in the airport traffic area, and the area is not currently under a low-level air show waiver, my reaction is usually negative, even when everyone else is amazed. I am impressed by good judgment, not by spectacle. I have spent too long on the cutting edge of aerospace, and watched people cross over that line, never to return - more often than I want to remember. My profession is one of making the most exciting thing in the world as boring as possible. That might disappoint some folks, but it keeps others alive. As to last year's statistics, thanks for bring it up Doug! It made me take a half hour and go look up the NTSB site myself. I searched the 2009 database for "RV", and got 49 hits, and the 17 fatalities you mentioned. (Bob Milne's accident was in 2008 Phil - time does fly....). I built a quick spreadsheet with the data, and read the findings or preliminary reports (whichever was present) to get a feel for the cause of the accidents. Of the thirteen fatal accidents, I'd put them in the following bins: VFR in IFR conditions - 3 Loss of Control on takeoff - 2 Los of Control on Landing - 1 Low Level Aerobatics - 2 Low Level Stall - 4 Formation gone wrong - 1 We can argue over a few of the buckets, but it's only a crude parsing - it's not intended to be complete and comprehensive. The best thing we can do is to ignite everyone's curiosity enough to go look them up themselves, and take the hour necessary to read the reports. Make your own comparisons to operations you are familiar with. And don't be deluded - accidents happen to folks with tens of thousands of hours as well as those with only a few. I'd sure like to bury less friends each year rather than more. Paul |
Red Neck Flying
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If you're going to do aerobatics or formation, get the proper training. Become a professional, not a statistic. -------Oh yeah; Rocket Bob, I like your other avitar better.------:p |
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Dan Lloyd...
...is one RV-10 fatality.
Sometimes you just have to say no. My wife wanted to fly to the coast last week, to visit an old high school friend, 130 miles from here, in S.C. I said no, the weather's lousy and she didn't quite understand because it was CAVU here at home. I was pressured because.."She's only gonna be here another two days before she goes back to Maine"...or wherever. Don't get suckered into a situation you shouldn't be in. Nevertheless, I stood my ground and we left the next day because I deemed the entire trip, there and back, doable, VFR. It was barely VFR the last 30 miles and a turnaround to better weather was always my call and she accepts that. Sometimes, just say no. Best, |
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I thought about this earlier this morning. Actually Bob's accident occurred in April of 2009, but it didn't register as a fatality in the NTSB databases. It's listed as a non-fatal because he died some days later in Memorial hospital. In my mind, that makes it a fatality. That's the reason it's not showing up under the fatal accidents. Phil |
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I'd almost consider 'serious' as a fatality too. All of the people I know who have had accidents with a serious injury will never experience a quality of life I'd like to experience. Their flying careers are over, blindness, severe burns.... I'm not sure that's worth living for. |
One accident in that database involved an RV that crashed for undetermined reasons. Witnesses had differing reports, none that agreed. In the end, the NTSB simply doesn't know what went wrong.
Both the pilot and the passenger had "autopsy evidence of coronary artery disease and a previous heart attack, though it is possible that either or both were not aware of their heart disease." It may have been medical incapacitation of the pilot that caused the crash, but nobody will ever know. Both pilots were very careful and were not the buzz-job types. One bucked most of my rivets in Smokey. I choose to believe that medical incapacitation was the underlying cause of the accident. There are times we just don't know what happened ... |
One of the reasons we don't learn more from individual RV accidents is because we don't know HOW to talk about individual RV accidents.
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Now days you can't come right out and say on the internet, "That guy was absolutely stupid because of 1.XXX 2.XXX and 3.XXX." Those conversations occur face 2 face in a hangar. If you do, then folks say you shouldn't be so judgmental. They say that family members are reading posts and we can't let their family know they were missing a few marbles at the time of the accident. In Bob's case, he made a stupid decision. I knew Bob, well. He'd tell you in a heartbeat that he screwed up. Originally his brother came on VAF and said we had it wrong and the Bob would never do anything stupid. After learning more about the accident he came back and humbly admitted that Bob screwed up. That doesn't happen very often and I have much more respect for them for admitting it and then using his accident to make sure other pilots understand the impact of their decisions. It's rare for a family to accept blame. It's easier to talk about the group of accidents as a whole and not call any individual stupid. I think that's where you were headed. |
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And it IS definitely misleading when they don't call it fatal if the person lives beyond a certain time, then passes away later from the injuries. Paul |
I didn't read the posts so this point may have already been made.
There is less warbirds every year but more RV every year so looking only at death is misleading. Death/flying airplane or even better death/flying hours would be a better metric. |
It's been mentioned in passing earlier in the thread, but just to highlight it again, don't focus on the straight number of accidents. The number of RV's flying every year is increasing, so it's not unsurprising that the number of accidents also increases. One would hope that the rate of increase in number of completions is increasing faster than the rate of increase of number of accidents, but that's probably not the case.
Also, comparing to motorcycling on a highway may not be a fair comparison... Some motorcycle accidents are caused by the nut that connects the seat to the handlebars, sure. But the vast majority are still caused by inattentive drivers of cars, at no fault of the motorcycle involved. I don't think that can be said for the majority of RV accidents. |
My objective was to generate discussion about safety. And I am all for people taking the time to go look in the database for themselves, but like the judge says to the jury, heed the admonition... Read them looking for the things we do, not the things we don't do.
Lets look at Paul's buckets: VFR in IFR conditions - 3 Loss of Control on takeoff - 2 Los of Control on Landing - 1 Low Level Aerobatics - 2 Low Level Stall - 4 Formation gone wrong - 1 Everyone who flies has done one of these activites, many of us have done all of them in the past year. Answer these questions honestly: Have I flown into deteriorating weather? Have I made 1 take-off in the preceeding 12 months where I was at the limit of my ability and had a gust hit me, I might have lost it? Same question on landing except add a tire failed? Have I done ANY Acro below 1500 feet not associated with a waiver? Have I gotten slow even once in the base to final turn where wake turbulence might have induced a stall? Have I flown formation once where something caused me to take quick evasive action? If the answer just one of these questions was yes, then we're in "There but for the grace of God go I" category. I don't mean by this to imply that we all have to quit flying, but what I do mean is that we all need to acknowledge that we participate in exactly the same activities that killed our buddies. That means we have to honestly look at our own skill and abilities. The rub is, none of these guys intended to crash. All of them thought they were capable of doing the thing that killed them. So then, again, we have to go back and look at ourselves in the mirror and ask, "Am I as good as I think I am?" I am an instructor, DPE, FAR 135 checkpilot, & CAF fighter checkpilot. I fly with lots of pilots, from airline captains to private applicants, and I can say with very strong certainty, that very few pilots are as good as we thing we are. (I am looking in the mirror too.) All this is fine and good, but that the real question is, "So what can I do about that?" First off. Increase your margins, here are some sample examples: If you think a 1000 ft or 3 miles is good enough for VFR X/C don't go unless it is 1500 ft or 5 miles. If you think you can handle a 20 kt X-wind, use 15 as a limit. If 1500 ft is your base for acro, use 2500. If 60 kts is your min speed on base, use 70 kts. And If you normally fly formation with anyone who comes along, commit to fly only with people you know and trust. The second thing is, try to take annual training from the best pilots that you know. Embark on a quest of Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) in your flying. Get new ratings, fly with instructors. because I fly with so many pilots, not only do I get to fly with some who are not as good as they think they are, I get to fly with some that are so good they make me want to hang up my headset.... Flying with really good pilots does 2 things, it makes me better, but more importantly, it makes me realize how much better I could/should be. Business managers know that CQI is a journey and not a destination and we all must make a personal commitment to that in our flying. It is tough, but it is rewarding too, and hopefully it keeps us alive to keep flying. Tailwinds, Doug Rozendaal |
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Accidents per flying hour is really tough because no one is keeping score. But really we are not there yet, unless you believe our current accident rate is acceptable. It is not. The point is, that our accident rate is WAY TOO HIGH. For now, let's just agree on that and focus on lowering it. Tailwinds, Doug Rozendaal |
Just wanted to thank Doug for putting this together. Great perspective for RV pilots and pilots in general.
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Aerobatic RV's
Some posts have noted the low rate of RV-10 accidents. Perhaps I didn't see all the reports, but I only found one instance of an RV-9 accident (non-fatal), and that seemed to be an Eggenfellner powerplant failure. Perhaps non-aerobatic RV's are somewhat less likely to be flown in manner that results in these sorts of accidents. Of course, it could also be that there are fewer RV-9's and RV-10's flying.
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AFR
try to take annual training from the best pilots that you know. Embark on a quest of Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) in your flying. Get new ratings, fly with instructors. because I fly with so many pilots, not only do I get to fly with some who are not as good as they think they are, I get to fly with some that are so good they make me want to hang up my headset.... Flying with really good pilots does 2 things, it makes me better, but more importantly, it makes me realize how much better I could/should be. Doug Rozendall
I wanted to highlight what Doug wrote about getting more training and consistently trying to learn to be a better, more skillful pilot. I have set my Bi-Annual requirements to Annual Flight Review. I do this with a pilot that I believe to be one of the best flying today, and I ask him to put me through all the requirements for BFR and more. Reminds me...it's time for my AFR in April. Better get ready. Ron RV-4 |
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An example is Warren Pietsch, an Airshow pilot from Minot ND. Warren is my ACE which means he issued and renews my low-level aerobatic card. Warren is more comfortable in an airplane upside down clipping a ribbon at 10 feet than I am in a steep turn at 1500. He wears an airplane but when ever we fly together, he is always asking me questions and trying to learn.... Another is Matt Younkin. Matt flies so much better than I could ever dream and yet he is always calling asking me about this, that or the other thing because he want to know and learn everything he can about everything he flies.... Ya suppose that is how they got that good? Duh.... Tailwinds, Doug |
Most accidents I've read about...
Most accidents I've read about actually start hours, days, or months and years before the actual incident. Often the pilot is doing something stupid, careless, or thoughtless. Even the RV accidents related to fuel problems in the first few hours: clearly something built wrong.
My first flight is still 2 or 3 years from now, but there is much that can be done to make it safer now. Likewise my current flying can be safer now with a proper attitude and approach to not just flying, but life in general. Motorcycles and small aircraft may have about the same accident rate, but with airplanes we control much more of the situations than motorcyclists, who have to contend with clueless auto drivers. So, let's use that control we have! |
How about an Oshkosh forum?
After flying RV's for 12 years now and staying alive doing it, those statistics were alarming. I wish someone with the knowledge and ability would carefully dissect a few of these accidents and incorporate them into an Airventure forum on RV Safety.
Steve Ciha |
That is a good idea.
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If we are talking VFR flight into IMC, that is not really any different than any other airplane, but if there is something like a higher percentage of base to final stalls or other data, that could be really usefull in trying to understand, and then train for. If we are just on the norm with other GA accident numbers and type, the RV is no longer unique. The sobering part of all of this is we are human animals. Even if we know what might kill us, train to keep away from it, we still can fail. I watched a video called "Flying the P-38 by Jeff Ethel" in which he forewarns the viewer of the "widowmaker" fuel management system of that airplane. The next year he died in a P-38 in Tillamook Oregon caused by a fuel management issue. Very sad. One of the most experienced War Bird pilots of our time, but still, just human, like you and me. |
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