Future of 100LL AvGas
 

I work for a major aircraft OEM, and was given a presentation yesterday by the CEO of one of the largest aviation fuel distributors in the US. The topic was the future cost and availability of 100LL AvGas.

To make a long story short, refineries have little if any incentive to keep producing 100LL. It's an insignificant part of their business, it's expensive, and they can make greater margins using their capacity to make premium auto gas. He went so far to say that that there could be a very serious supply problem by as early as 2011. The price for 100LL will be much higher, if it is even available at all. Look to Europe, Africa, and South America for examples of this today.

I'm still several years away from mounting a powerplant on my RV-8, and had planned on just going the traditional Lycoming route. However, given the serious doubts about the future of 100LL, I'm going to give this decision much more careful thought.

My questions to my fellow VAF posters are:

1) What options do we have?
and
2) What do you plan to do?

I'd appreciate your thoughts.

Great Questions
 

I have been of the opinion that 100LL would be around for a long time. Now, I?m not so sure. I have two birds with auto gas STCs, a Cub and a 170. Even that may be a problem if the Ethanol trend continues.

My thoughts are that Jet A is our only shot. I think that the development of good 2 cycle diesel engines will be the fix for the 150hp to the 250hp range. Hopefully we will see some viable engines within the next couple of years.

As for me, I?m waiting for the RV-12. Initially, I was planning to try to re-engine it to get away from the Rotax. Now, I?m not so sure. The word is that 10% ethanol is not a problem in these engines. So, maybe Van did his homework and has found the perfect combination for us economy-minded pilots. Then again, perhaps there will be an alternative engine that will use Jet A by the time that I am ready for it. I certainly hope so.

Tom

I read somewhere that there is only one manufacturer in the world that makes TEL (tetraethyl lead) - the additive that puts the LL in 100LL. So I agree with you 100LL will soon go the way of the Dodo.

There have been rumblings about 100LL going away for some time now, and that is why I intend to use a low compression (8.5:1), unleaded-fuel-friendly engine on my 8A. The future of low lead is also what steered me away from using an ECI 340 - its high compression pistons aren't compatible with unleaded fuels.

Read this very interesting article from AvWeb: http://www.avweb.com/news/maint/187232-1.html

I agree also in the long term 100 LL is going away

very big concern for me as well... I expect to see a steep spike in price per gallon for 100LL way before 2011 hits. Granted I am far far away from choosing an engine, but I want to know what im going to do before I get there... $30k on an engine is something I want to be sure about... and not regret!

Perhaps someday we will use salt water to fuel our engines....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf4gOS8aoFk


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B8srudAUhE

One Company - In England
 

This is the one and only company....

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/business/84/8417bus2.html

Interestingly enough, it's in England across the river (Ferry across the Mersey) from my birthplace...

Given the "nanny-state" mentality in England, I'm surprised they are still allowed to make it....:) ...perhaps they haven't caught on yet....

gil A

The folks at GAMI have claimed that their PRISM ignition system will allow wide use of unleaded gasoline in aviation engines. Time will tell.

erich

They're not going to orphan 100,000+ piston aircraft in North America. There will be an unleaded avgas replacement. What that might cost would be the concern.:(

The auto engined experimentals won't worry much about the demise of 100LL and I suspect most aircraft engines with a properly calibrated EI won't care much either. Hopefully they cover the octane requirements of some of the older turbocharged and supercharged certified engines.

I'm still going with 10 to 1 pistons in my turbo Subaru. Got programmable fuel and spark control with knock sensing if required as well.:)