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-   -   CoVid and Airplane Prices (https://vansairforce.net/community/showthread.php?t=180518)

s11033 03-16-2020 01:13 PM

CoVid and Airplane Prices
 
Hey guys,

I'm looking to buy my first airplane, and am most interested in the RV6, RV7 and RV8. My funds are limited, and I think I can probably get a better deal on an RV6. But I'm open to all 3, with a preference for taildraggers.

I've heard someone theorize that the health and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic might depress prices of flying aircraft and advanced kits within the next 6 months. Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?

Stay healthy guys!

Steve

andrewtac 03-16-2020 01:30 PM

Can't comment in 2008; but you are probably accurate. Much of the folks who are consumers of GA derive income from aviation; and the hit to the industry will be on par with 911.

Ralph Inkster 03-16-2020 01:54 PM

Health Warning Alert - give wide berth to any aircraft exhibiting symptoms of coughing, spitting or dripping.

Scott Hersha 03-16-2020 02:02 PM

I think it?s way too early to tell. It?s only been a bad situation here for less than two weeks. They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer. That?s my optimistic, but realistic guess. If I wanted to sell my airplane, I certainly wouldn?t do it when we just stalled it and are in the middle of a spin. Let?s hope our PIC can keep his cool, apply the right controls, and recover before we bite the dust.

David Paule 03-16-2020 02:23 PM

Sorry, no vaccine is at all ready.

Here's a reasonably reliable guide to what's known. I've found the site, Ars Technica, to be reliable over the last several years. This article gets updated daily and has just been updated for today.

As for airplane prices, about the only observation I can make, in the absence of data, is that among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales. Probably not all that rapidly, as the estates will need to be probated and the virus will slow that down.

Dave

Sam Buchanan 03-16-2020 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by s11033 (Post 1415024)
Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?

Stay healthy guys!

Steve

I won't try to predict what will happen the remainder of this year, but in regard to your questions, yes, RV prices did decline following the recession in 2008. In cases where buyers tried to maintain pricing, it took longer to move the aircraft.

Tankerpilot75 03-16-2020 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Paule (Post 1415049)
?among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales.?.....

That?s what I like ?a positive attitude.? While it might work out that way, I can say that not many of us ?seniors? want to think about ?estate sales?.

cderk 03-16-2020 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Hersha (Post 1415039)
...They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer.

They are no where near having a vaccine... and probably wont for at least a year. Not sure where you got that misinformation.

jrs14855 03-16-2020 03:59 PM

Vaccine
 
Presidential press conference less than two hours ago they are ready to test a vaccine.

alpinelakespilot2000 03-16-2020 04:01 PM

My observation FWIW... When I started building in 2005, people were getting significantly more than they were putting into the 2-seaters. (That was a selling point I made to my wife! :rolleyes:) It got to the point where the issues of "professional" or serial builds for profit were quite common and on the rise. However, by the time I finished and started flying in 2012, that profit margin had pretty much dried up for the 2-seaters. Since then I don't think people get a whole lot more (if any) out of them than what they put in. I'm guessing that the 2008-9 crash made the initial difference. Thereafter, (relative) market saturation have kept prices around the cost to build.

All that said, it seems like the market for the -10 has always been pretty strong. This leads me to believe that, if you've got enough money for a -10 in the first place, then a market downturn is less likely to impact your airplane buying than it would if your budget is more suited to the 2-seaters.


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