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-   -   T Storm Outflow (https://vansairforce.net/community/showthread.php?t=114050)

Joness0154 06-16-2014 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketbob (Post 888940)
I've flown very close to and around many thunderstorms in the last 20 years and have a good understanding of what is safe vs. what isn't.

Famous last words.

Sid Lambert 06-16-2014 07:20 AM

Doug's post remind me of when I first got my RV-4. I had been flying about 2 weeks and had met some real characters at the airport in that time. It was a new airport to me but the fellow I purchased the -4 from said I could keep it in his hangar until I found a place. Miraculously, my name came up for a hangar after 5 years of being on the waiting list. (Maybe it had something to do with me buying fuel? :)

Back to the story... There was a nasty thunderstorm just off the north end of the runway but I was ok to taxi down to my new hangar. I jumped in, fired it up and started to taxi when I noticed one of the old timers running out on the taxi way. He was jumping and pointing at the lightening popping about 3-5 miles off the end of the runway. He was essentially going to block me from taking off. I tossed open the canopy and told him I had a hangar behind his now and he looked oh so relieved.

I am very grateful of the actions of people like this. While I feel I have good judgment you never know when something like this is going to save you. Like maybe a tow bar dragging from your tailwheel or a pitot cover still on.

Low Pass 06-16-2014 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joness0154 (Post 889053)
Famous last words.

Why is safe operations for everyone so often defined for all by one person's personal limits?

I'm 100% with Bob. RVs are not jet transports and they're not J-3s. I've operated in proximity to many t-storms in my 28 or so years of flying and each situation has to be evaluated individually.

To paint operations "near" any thunderstorm as death defying or negligent is not appropriate. What's a safe margin? 1 mile? 10? 50? Also, there are many factors that weigh into this risk equation. To not understand this fact is an overly simple mind set.

As for what Doug Reeves saw, that likely could have been one of those 60,000+' hail makers that I saw every spring when I lived in N Texas. And further, being proprietor of this site (and in light of the litigious nature of this country) I see his commentary as appropriate and proper.

brad walton 06-16-2014 07:36 AM

There is a great diversity of opinions expressed above which indicates to me I am the only one responsible for my decisions. Everyone has their own perspective but I suspect the intensity of the outflow each imagines as they state their point of view is different. Flying sailplanes in Texas, I regularly flew the broadband lift generated by thunderstorm outflow. No problems and lots of lift which I believe was safe to fly. But a fast moving squall line is another issue. Depends on what the circumstances are and what I decide is acceptable for me. There is no blanket rule that can apply to all persons or situations. Lets not forget there can be clear air turbulence and hail 10 miles or more from certain cells

Joness0154 06-16-2014 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Low Pass (Post 889070)
Why is safe operations for everyone so often defined for all by one person's personal limits?

My comment was in reference to his 20 years of thunderstorm "expertise".

No two thunderstorms are the same. All it takes is one storm to bite you hard...even if it does seem similar to the last one you flew near.

Low Pass 06-16-2014 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joness0154 (Post 889085)
My comment was in reference to his 20 years of thunderstorm "expertise".

No two thunderstorms are the same. All it takes is one storm to bite you hard...even if it does seem similar to the last one you flew near.

Agreed. So how much room should we allow?

Sig600 06-16-2014 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joness0154 (Post 889053)
Famous last words.

Like Bob said, different people have different thresholds for risk. There is also the risk vs. reward matrix one has to solve for every instance.

Personally, I don't fly the -8 in anything over about 10 knots right now. I'm just not comfortable, or good enough.

Professionally we have SOP madated minimums and maximums that make the desicion for us.

That said, I'll give you a for instance....

A bunch of years ago I was flying part 91 charter for a guy, and on the return leg of a trip we were tasked to bring an organ in for transplant. Picked it up in VA and it needed to be in FL for the patient within 12 hours or the patient, and organ would pass. Only problem was there was a tropical storm rolling through. Sounds crazy right? With a little planning and a lot of luck we timed our arrival between the rain bands. After a very hairy RNAV approach we broke out and landed a Seneca in rain with winds gusting 45+. We had a VFR alternate and there was no way I wasn't going to try. We made it, patient got the heart.

Some fewer number of years ago we were providing close air support for troops in contact north of Baghdad. It was a life/death situation for the guys on the ground and there were thunderstorms all around us. The only tanker available in clear air was in the southern part of the country, with about a 45 minute round trip transit. There was another 15 miles away trying to pick it's way through the weather to us. We opted to take the risk, remain over head, and burned down dangerously low to get these guys clear. Wound up joining and getting our much needed gas in the weather, for some of the scariest flying I never want to repeat.

It's not always black and white. A little knowledge can go a long way in risk mitigation depending on the circumstances.

That said, thunderstorms deserve a wide margin.

BCP Boys 06-16-2014 10:27 AM

I honestly have nothing to add because it will seem like I'm arguing but I will say God Bless you if you fly close to these dangerous storms and hope that your evaluation of your skills and the storms around you will you keep you safe for the rest of your flying career. I will be the one less traffic that you won't have to worry about hitting because I will be go WAY around that cell.

All the best'
AB

RVbySDI 06-16-2014 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sig600 (Post 889107)
Like Bob said, different people have different thresholds for risk. There is also the risk vs. reward matrix one has to solve for every instance.

Personally, I don't fly the -8 in anything over about 10 knots right now. I'm just not comfortable, or good enough.

Professionally we have SOP madated minimums and maximums that make the desicion for us.

That said, I'll give you a for instance....

A bunch of years ago I was flying part 91 charter for a guy, and on the return leg of a trip we were tasked to bring an organ in for transplant. Picked it up in VA and it needed to be in FL for the patient within 12 hours or the patient, and organ would pass. Only problem was there was a tropical storm rolling through. Sounds crazy right? With a little planning and a lot of luck we timed our arrival between the rain bands. After a very hairy RNAV approach we broke out and landed a Seneca in rain with winds gusting 45+. We had a VFR alternate and there was no way I wasn't going to try. We made it, patient got the heart.

Some fewer number of years ago we were providing close air support for troops in contact north of Baghdad. It was a life/death situation for the guys on the ground and there were thunderstorms all around us. The only tanker available in clear air was in the southern part of the country, with about a 45 minute round trip transit. There was another 15 miles away trying to pick it's way through the weather to us. We opted to take the risk, remain over head, and burned down dangerously low to get these guys clear. Wound up joining and getting our much needed gas in the weather, for some of the scariest flying I never want to repeat.

It's not always black and white. A little knowledge can go a long way in risk mitigation depending on the circumstances.

That said, thunderstorms deserve a wide margin.

Kudos on these two examples. Two fantastic anecdotes for the risk/reward decision that has to be made. In both of these situations THE MISSION had to take precedent over the risk to the aircraft and personnel. No question about it.

A few points on the discussion though; I agree with Bob concerning personal vs group freedoms to decide for oneself whether one's decisions on the risk/reward meter meet PERSONAL minimums or maximums. Group insurance rates are a RED HERRING in this discussion. Any argument to that effect would imply the person making that argument is more concerned about themselves and not whether the actions of the person committing the act would have detrimental effects on the actor.

Concerning Sig600's examples, I think I might have slapped someone silly had some individual confronted me about flying in such risky conditions. Sometimes a risky action just has to be undertaken! Given that, I do feel that it would be extremely rare for me, and perhaps most others on this forum, to have to function in such a critical mission while flying my private aircraft. Each flight has its own unique mission that must be taken into consideration when evaluating the appropriate actions to be taken. Because of this, I can see where most commenting on this thread are going to think long and hard before flying anywhere close to thunderstorms. I know I do!

I have lived pretty much my entire life in Oklahoma. Wind, thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes are a way of life around here. If one spends any time at all in Oklahoma one would very quickly see things like ALL the local TV stations with their helicopters hovering nearby, not only thunderstorms, but tornadoes themselves! We have seen up close and personal footage right on our TV screens of these helicopter pilots getting incredible footage of developing or full blown tornadoes, LIVE! Do we chastise these pilots and the news producers for acting in such a risky manner when they place themselves and their aircraft in harms way?

A comment By Sig600 was made about a personal minimum about not flying his new RV8 in winds above 10 knots. This from the same guy that flew these two dangerous missions successfully. Well, power to him for setting those minimums for himself. He is the only one who has the knowledge to determine whether he or his aircraft can perform up to his standards in such situations. Who am I to say anything about his decisions?

Now perhaps I could have one moment of good natured teasing and say to him: In this part of the world if one did not fly in winds that exceeded 10 knots. . . well one might not ever find themselves flying much. :p Regardless of that fact, ribbing aside, it is his decision to make. Whether I were to chastise someone for flying foolishly near a thunderstorm or chastise someone for not flying in winds above 10 knots, both situations would be inappropriate.

Live Long and Prosper!

Sig600 06-16-2014 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RVbySDI (Post 889151)
Now perhaps I could have one moment of good natured teasing and say to him: In this part of the world if one did not fly in winds that exceeded 10 knots. . . well one might not ever find themselves flying much. :p Regardless of that fact, ribbing aside, it is his decision to make. Whether I were to chastise someone for flying foolishly near a thunderstorm or chastise someone for not flying in winds above 10 knots, both situations would be inappropriate.
!

Oh trust me, on the leeward side of the Sierras it can get frustrating. It's an hour drive for me to get to the airport.

Case in point the airplane had not flown (or engine run) in about 2 weeks or so recently. I left the house at 0600 to try and beat the afternoon wind. Pushed the airplane out, started up, taxied out and by the time I hit the hold short it was 9 gusting to 15. I pulled my phone up, looked up the TAF again and it now showed winds over 15 starting an hour later. Turned around and went back to the hangar. Drove the hour home. It can be really frustrating at times but for now.... the limit is the limit and until I'm comfortable with something less I'm not going to push it and risk bending my baby!!!

Again, thuderstorms get at least 20 miles. If on the leeward side of the storm, especially a big one, 30-50 miles. In the pleasure flying world there is just no reason to venture closer unless you're out of gas and options... in which case there were some planning failures that happened much earlier, or unforcast weather.


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