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False Echos

Ironflight

VAF Moderator / Line Boy
Mentor
As much as I brag about XM weather and the revolutionary way in which it enhances cross-country safety, I like to remind myself (and everyone else), that like any tool, it has it's quirks and limitations. I've written before about seeing a full-grown thunderstorm over the Guadalupe Mountains that showed nary a breath of green on the XM return because there are no radar sites there. Well I just came back from a flight with the opposite extreme - false echoes.

We're sitting here in Houston waiting for T.S. Eduard, currently a couple hundred miles to the east southeast. Since it is bright (hot) and sunny out, I decided a short local flight was in order. much to my surprise, as I fired up the 396 and XM weather, it was showing widespread patches of green precip all around me. This picture certainly didn't agree with the merciless sun beating through the canopy as i climbed out for some acro. Certainly there were some afternoon buildups, but as I cleared the Class B I climbed and determined that these scattered Cu's were only going up to about 10,000', and most of the area was clear! Hmmmm....what gives with XM?

I zoomed out to get the big picture, and realized that all of the false echoes were along the coast from the mouth of the Brazos up towards Louisiana, and nothing was showing inland from Houston. Way out to sea to the east, you could see the outer fringes of the tropical Storm. This is what tipped me off - the local radar antenna was being depressed as low as it would go to pick up the outer edges of the storm, and this was in turn creating returns from the local terrain - ground clutter! The green was land within 50 miles or so of the antenna.

Now none of this is to brand XM as "unreliable" - it is still a remarkable tool! But like any tool, it has it's limitations, and once you know how to use it in concert with your other tools (in this case, Mark I eyeballs), you can accomplish the ultimate goal - understanding the weather picture in it's big and true form. Never fail to ask yourself "does this make sense?" when looking at data. I'm glad I saw this little anomaly today - it's one more lesson to store away for the future when using just one of my many tools.

Paul
 
Paul,

Slightly different issue in New Mexico. We very often get organized and true radar returns of blue and green with no rain at all on the surface, particularly when surface dew points are low (commonly in the 30s or 40s). That rain is up there all right but it is just too dry at the surface for it to make it there.

This makes the choice ours, fly high in the rain or low below the virga but probably in the associated turbulence.
 
I've seen the same thing down here Larry - enough moisture in the clouds to look like rain, but none gets below the cloud bases.

The good thing about seeing "rain" where it isn't is that you don't get into something WORSE than you expect. It might make you cancel a trip (or re-route) when you don't have to, but that's the safe direction in which to err....

Paul
 
Well, living about 20 miles from the Guadalupe Mountains I can certainly confirm that there can be a full blown thunderstorm over the western section that does not show on NOAA or XM weather radar. There is ATC radar coverage. I can't remember if it is on the web or on a Garmin 396/496 page, but there is a place where you can look at the XM weather radar coverage. It has significant gaps.

Personally, watching a thunderstorm in real time that is showing no echoes is one of the things that made me pony up the extra money to get lightning information. Lightning DOES show up over the Guadalupes.
 
how satellite Wx gets to you

The data that you see on in your cockpit is not simply raw radar returns. It is actually very heavily processed. The raw data comes in from the radar sites and then a very large and powerful array of computers takes a first cut. That takes several minutes. More if it is a "busy" weather day.

Next, real live humans complete the task. I've seen it done. Every 15 mintues or so a bell rings (actully it was a digitized cu-cu clock sound), and a bunch of meterologists rush to madly correct the radar returns. They work at workstations with multiple screens, and use their best judgement to try to determine if the return is real or not. For example, I saw one deleting green returns because they were "ghosts". Others were adjusting the levels of the returns, or even adding in missing data (interpolating).

Like any process with people in it, mistakes get made. I'm sure some of them make it to the data we see.
 
Lest folks get the idea that ALL XM radar returns are delayed by significant periods of time, I've circled and watched the development and decline of small cells here on the gulf coast, and compared them to what I saw on XM. Updates are rarely more than 3 minutes apart, and the correlation between real-world and XM is usually as close to real-time as you would need. Of course, the point of this thread is to emphasize to folks that you need to apply common sense and reason to what you are seeing. Strange things CAN happen, but overall, the system is fast, reliable, and plenty good for 170 knot airplanes trying to avoid weather (NOT penetrate it!)...

Paul
 
Using XM on the way home from OSH did tell what a powerful tool it is. Dodging thunderstorms, and finding the best direction to go to avoid them was great.

I'd like to point out too, that sometimes the associated microburst below virga activity is something that would be nice to avoid too, not just the rain. Therefore, even those radar returns are nice for something :D
 
I heard my local weather guesser that false returns are more likely when the dew point is falling. Something about the humidity difference between wet and dry air causes the radar to think it is seeing light rain, hence the large green area.

I too have compaired actaul weather with what is on the screen. Very accurate. However, be safe and look outside the cockpit once in a while. ;)

Good thread!
 
Paul mentions he typically gets a 3 minute refresh on his XM weather. I have a 396, and my refresh rate very rarely is less than 5 minutes. At times it has been up to 13 minutes (of course, that was a time I needed it the most...lots of storms on the gulf coast as I was going from Destin to San Antonio...) The worst I have seen is 31 minutes! Gasp!

Anyway...what have others found with their refresh rate? Is there a problem with my 396 or some other explanation?

Thanks!

Tom Chapman
San Antonio, TX
Flying RV-4 (20th birthday coming in October)
Building RV-8
 
I think I'd call Garmin with a 15 minute refresh rate Tom - I don't think I've EVER seen it older than 6 minutes!

Paul
 
I've seen METARS go as long as an hour. Radar can go 3-6 mins. Pretty amazing stuff when you think about it.

I'm waiting for Garmin to send a new "hocky puck" XM antenna. The thought of flying CC without XM weather in the cabin is really strange! I just might have to break out the ol folding maps! How spoiled we can get with this new technology.
 
I believe the nexrad system is generally updated every 5 minutes. But, as others have pointed out, it is not a completely automated system. I usually see radar updates on my xm every 5 minutes. Same thing for PC based nexrad stuff. I've never seen less than 5 minutes on either.
 
396 Nexrad refresh rate

I've never seen Nexrad radar data older than 5 minutes on my 396. The more I use my XM Weather, the more I depend on it as another valuable source of weather data...and the more I like it. :D
Don
 
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Paul mentions he typically gets a 3 minute refresh on his XM weather. I have a 396, and my refresh rate very rarely is less than 5 minutes. At times it has been up to 13 minutes (of course, that was a time I needed it the most...lots of storms on the gulf coast as I was going from Destin to San Antonio...) The worst I have seen is 31 minutes! Gasp!

Anyway...what have others found with their refresh rate? Is there a problem with my 396 or some other explanation?

Well, barring an actual hardware problem, I've seen plenty of cases where the placement of the antenna affected data reception... it's not enough just to ensure three bars, since a strong signal can still be noisy. :) If it consistently has problems sitting on a picnic table in a parking lot, though, then that's a different matter. Also remember that the satellites are generally in the southern sky, since they're parked over the equator.

I'd actually be surprised to see someone getting NEXRAD data updates faster than 5 minute intervals, since I thought that was how often XM sends that piece of data down from the satellites. Other data products, such as METARs, TAFs, lightning, etc. all come in at different rates too. Generally, I think that only storm cell data comes in faster than 5 minutes, and most everything else is on an interval that's more like 10-15 minutes.

mcb
 
Keep in mind that irrespective of your refresh rate it takes, I believe, 5 minutes for a 360 degree radar sweep, so in any given picture half of the info is 5 minutes old before it is collated for transmission.Then the data has to be but together transmitted to a ground station, up to the sat and down to you. You really need to consider everything you receive as possibly 12 minutes old no mattter when your unit refreshed last. As for Iron he isn't fooling me he certainly has some fancy NASA doodad that he uses to make the XM sats do what he wants them to.:)
 
A good rule of thumb:

If the weather is changing so rapidly that what you are seeing on the XM doesn't match what you are seeing out the windw, then you probably don't want to be there! Weather that dynamic is going to trap you, then slap you - hard! That's why I won't file IFR around convective activity - once you get in the soup, you can't see anything out the window to correlate what you are seeing on the radar.

And no Milt, you can't have a peak at all the little codes I carry on the back of my badge...;)
 
Keep in mind that irrespective of your refresh rate it takes, I believe, 5 minutes for a 360 degree radar sweep, so in any given picture half of the info is 5 minutes old before it is collated for transmission.Then the data has to be but together transmitted to a ground station, up to the sat and down to you. You really need to consider everything you receive as possibly 12 minutes old no mattter when your unit refreshed last.

Absolutely right, Milt. And as Paul said earlier, datalink weather is a great tool for avoiding areas with bad weather and improving your strategic decision-making, but it isn't so good for short-range tactical use. I get nervous when I hear people say how they used XM weather to tiptoe their way through a line of cells. Remember what the AIM tells us:

AIM 7-1-11.b.4 said:
FIS aviation weather products (e.g., graphical ground-based radar precipitation depictions) are not appropriate for tactical avoidance of severe weather such as negotiating a path through a weather hazard area. FIS supports strategic weather decision making such as route selection to avoid a weather hazard area in its entirety. The misuse of information beyond its applicability may place the pilot and aircraft in jeopardy. In addition, FIS should never be used in lieu of an individual pre-flight weather and flight planning briefing.

XM weather is great, and I hate to fly without it. However, I know a little about how it works, and I'd never use it to go through a line that didn't have a nice clear hole in the middle, say at least 30 miles wide.

fly safe,
mcb
 
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