Having a few days off of the long Shuttle mission (we can only work a set number of days straight, and have to use subs) I flew out to Knoxville from Houston to meet Louise for the weekend. She flew in from the D.C. area in the morning, slipping in ahead of some rain spawned by a building storm in western Tennessee. I had been watching things for a couple of days, and was worried by the forecasts because they called for the storms to increase due to a deepening low, although I couldn’t quite figure out where the low was going to come from. The forecast maps kept changing as well – a sure sign that the computer models are getting a bit nervous, and a warning bell to be careful.
So what’s the problem with weather? I am flying a new airplane, equipped with IFR GPS, EFIS, moving maps, synthetic approach and HITS displays – piece of cake – right? Well, it’s all about managing risk. I have flown over Knoxville at altitude a number of times, and have always been impressed with the scenic hills and the narrow river valley. To the south, the hills get bigger, with minimum safe altitudes up around 7,000’, with the river valley about 800'. Storms coming in from the north and west will have bases maybe a thousand feet high, which will pile them right up against the hills to the south, a bad recipe for low visibilities and ceilings. I don’t mind flying around hills. I don’t mind flying IFR, and frankly, I don’t mind flying around thunderstorms, given XM weather and the ability to stay VFR – or if IFR, well away from any precip. (OK, to be honest, I don’t really want to be IFR with thunderstorms anywhere nearby!). I don’t’ even mind IFR in hilly terrain. But put all three together, and the risk definitely exceeds my personal threshold. You deal with thunderstorms by avoiding them. With hills around, if you are in the clouds, maneuvering for an approach, you simply don’t have anyplace to go – I don’t want to get caught between a rock and a thunderstorm! I’ve been reading Richard Collins all my life, and those eastern hills scare me when weather becomes a factor.
Anyway, when I got up on Friday morning, there were low ceilings and MVFR conditions all the way from Houston up to Knoxville. The TAF’s called for clearing in the afternoon, but I couldn’t wait too late because Louise had some meetings scheduled in the evening, and if I got in late, I’d mess up those plans. I figured that rather than introduce additional schedule pressure on both of us, if I couldn’t get in by 1800 local, I wouldn’t go – it was just a weekend, after all. I went in to the office to get some work done, and kept my eye on the forecasts. Interestingly, the storms appeared to be wrapping up and moving to the northeast of Knoxville more quickly than predicted – and the TAF’s were being amended for earlier clearing as well. By 1000 local, it looked like I would have a good window, so I headed to the airport. By the time I had the Val loaded and ready to fly, we were VFR, and it was time to launch. Now here is the important point – I didn’t launch for Knoxville, I launched for my fuel stop at Jasper, Alabama. There is a big difference (psychologically) in committing to the destination, or committing to an intermediate point. Heck, with an RV, I could fly to Jasper (500+ miles away), turn around and eat dinner at home if the storms didn’t move east.
I watched the XM weather (both radar and METARS) all the way to Jasper, cruising at 9,500 with 50 knot winds, 25 of which were on the tail. The clouds below were scattered, and the ride was smooth. The large area of rain up ahead continued to move away to the northeast, spun up by the low. By the time I got to Jasper, the remnants of the original storms were pretty much gone, and there were just a few lines of green and yellow precip, roughly aligned in the direction I was headed. I fueled at Jasper, which gave me enough gas to go to Knoxville and retreat back there – or all the way to Louisiana if I needed to! I decided that IFR was NOT an option, due to the potential for more storms, so I planned to stick below the ceilings that were being reported along the way about 2500 AGL, and just fly up the Tennessee river valley. This plan went out the window soon after departure, as a thin line of storms, aligned with my flight path, but on my left side, started to build up, and lower both ceilings and visibilities below what I was comfortable with down low. Chattanooga was ahead and slightly right of course, the line of storms was on my left, moving left to right, and there were both hills and more weather south and east of Chattanooga that I could see were going to block my path, so I climbed (all of this in good VFR) up to 9,500, where I had 1,000’ clearance to fly over a saddle in the line of weather to get behind it. I could tell by using the animation feature that it would be clear of the river valley before I got to Knoxville, and my course deviation was only about 15 miles north – as I said, it was a thin line.
Behind the line of weather, the clouds were broken cumulous, and I could see ground most of the time. I was worried a bit by what the ceilings might be however, and there weren’t any reporting stations to give me a really good handle on the ceilings. Knoxville was only 70 miles ahead, and they were going up and down, with broken layers reported that were still VFR. I finally found a nice, easy break for a descent, with good sunshine on the ground that showed me the ceilings were fine – once I was below, the visibility was good, but there was scud in some of the valleys. I was able to pick up the river and follow it into Knoxville, comforted by the terrain displayed on the GRT that let me “see” the clearance to the hills on either side. The main airport at Knoxville was actually getting clobbered by some rain as I went around it on the north side (careful not to infringe on the Oak Ridge Prohibited area!), and slid in to Knoxville Downtown just as the sun was breaking out and the clearing line approached from the west. It was definitely, an “Interesting” day!
Now I am not much of a proponent of scud running, and lest I give that impression, once I left Jasper, I set myself a “hard deck” where I would not descend to less than 1500’ above terrain, would not accept a flight visibility of less than five miles, and would not bust cloud clearance limits. I also had an IFR airplane that can climb 2,000 fpm if I needed an escape route, and was ready to call for a clearance if needed – but in addition, I kept the ability to climb to good clear air on top at all times – a retreat to the west would have had me fighting the wind, but I had the fuel to go all the way back to where it was clear. RV’s give you those advantages. XM weather gives you the information you need to know when the retreat is necessary. And of course, setting hard and fast rules – and not changing them when they become inconvenient – will help you live a long and prosperous life. Now I just hope that the forecast good weather for the Sunday return holds up – and that the winds aloft die down or change direction!
Fly safe - fly smart
Paul
So what’s the problem with weather? I am flying a new airplane, equipped with IFR GPS, EFIS, moving maps, synthetic approach and HITS displays – piece of cake – right? Well, it’s all about managing risk. I have flown over Knoxville at altitude a number of times, and have always been impressed with the scenic hills and the narrow river valley. To the south, the hills get bigger, with minimum safe altitudes up around 7,000’, with the river valley about 800'. Storms coming in from the north and west will have bases maybe a thousand feet high, which will pile them right up against the hills to the south, a bad recipe for low visibilities and ceilings. I don’t mind flying around hills. I don’t mind flying IFR, and frankly, I don’t mind flying around thunderstorms, given XM weather and the ability to stay VFR – or if IFR, well away from any precip. (OK, to be honest, I don’t really want to be IFR with thunderstorms anywhere nearby!). I don’t’ even mind IFR in hilly terrain. But put all three together, and the risk definitely exceeds my personal threshold. You deal with thunderstorms by avoiding them. With hills around, if you are in the clouds, maneuvering for an approach, you simply don’t have anyplace to go – I don’t want to get caught between a rock and a thunderstorm! I’ve been reading Richard Collins all my life, and those eastern hills scare me when weather becomes a factor.
Anyway, when I got up on Friday morning, there were low ceilings and MVFR conditions all the way from Houston up to Knoxville. The TAF’s called for clearing in the afternoon, but I couldn’t wait too late because Louise had some meetings scheduled in the evening, and if I got in late, I’d mess up those plans. I figured that rather than introduce additional schedule pressure on both of us, if I couldn’t get in by 1800 local, I wouldn’t go – it was just a weekend, after all. I went in to the office to get some work done, and kept my eye on the forecasts. Interestingly, the storms appeared to be wrapping up and moving to the northeast of Knoxville more quickly than predicted – and the TAF’s were being amended for earlier clearing as well. By 1000 local, it looked like I would have a good window, so I headed to the airport. By the time I had the Val loaded and ready to fly, we were VFR, and it was time to launch. Now here is the important point – I didn’t launch for Knoxville, I launched for my fuel stop at Jasper, Alabama. There is a big difference (psychologically) in committing to the destination, or committing to an intermediate point. Heck, with an RV, I could fly to Jasper (500+ miles away), turn around and eat dinner at home if the storms didn’t move east.
I watched the XM weather (both radar and METARS) all the way to Jasper, cruising at 9,500 with 50 knot winds, 25 of which were on the tail. The clouds below were scattered, and the ride was smooth. The large area of rain up ahead continued to move away to the northeast, spun up by the low. By the time I got to Jasper, the remnants of the original storms were pretty much gone, and there were just a few lines of green and yellow precip, roughly aligned in the direction I was headed. I fueled at Jasper, which gave me enough gas to go to Knoxville and retreat back there – or all the way to Louisiana if I needed to! I decided that IFR was NOT an option, due to the potential for more storms, so I planned to stick below the ceilings that were being reported along the way about 2500 AGL, and just fly up the Tennessee river valley. This plan went out the window soon after departure, as a thin line of storms, aligned with my flight path, but on my left side, started to build up, and lower both ceilings and visibilities below what I was comfortable with down low. Chattanooga was ahead and slightly right of course, the line of storms was on my left, moving left to right, and there were both hills and more weather south and east of Chattanooga that I could see were going to block my path, so I climbed (all of this in good VFR) up to 9,500, where I had 1,000’ clearance to fly over a saddle in the line of weather to get behind it. I could tell by using the animation feature that it would be clear of the river valley before I got to Knoxville, and my course deviation was only about 15 miles north – as I said, it was a thin line.
Behind the line of weather, the clouds were broken cumulous, and I could see ground most of the time. I was worried a bit by what the ceilings might be however, and there weren’t any reporting stations to give me a really good handle on the ceilings. Knoxville was only 70 miles ahead, and they were going up and down, with broken layers reported that were still VFR. I finally found a nice, easy break for a descent, with good sunshine on the ground that showed me the ceilings were fine – once I was below, the visibility was good, but there was scud in some of the valleys. I was able to pick up the river and follow it into Knoxville, comforted by the terrain displayed on the GRT that let me “see” the clearance to the hills on either side. The main airport at Knoxville was actually getting clobbered by some rain as I went around it on the north side (careful not to infringe on the Oak Ridge Prohibited area!), and slid in to Knoxville Downtown just as the sun was breaking out and the clearing line approached from the west. It was definitely, an “Interesting” day!
Now I am not much of a proponent of scud running, and lest I give that impression, once I left Jasper, I set myself a “hard deck” where I would not descend to less than 1500’ above terrain, would not accept a flight visibility of less than five miles, and would not bust cloud clearance limits. I also had an IFR airplane that can climb 2,000 fpm if I needed an escape route, and was ready to call for a clearance if needed – but in addition, I kept the ability to climb to good clear air on top at all times – a retreat to the west would have had me fighting the wind, but I had the fuel to go all the way back to where it was clear. RV’s give you those advantages. XM weather gives you the information you need to know when the retreat is necessary. And of course, setting hard and fast rules – and not changing them when they become inconvenient – will help you live a long and prosperous life. Now I just hope that the forecast good weather for the Sunday return holds up – and that the winds aloft die down or change direction!
Fly safe - fly smart
Paul
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