rvbuilder2002 said:
I am not meaning to kill the messenger, honest.
But if you feel the info is relevant, then tell everyone what the sourceswere so that the statements have some credibility and not still just rumor mill rumors.
I had to run to the hanger and mow my lawn that was over 12". Been too busy on other stuff the past few weeks to keep up with it. OK, and now the rest of the story.
What I said was only relevant because at the time we were discussing why Van's was having trouble with the design of the RV-12. This is when the discussions of some discontinuity at Van's was discussed. I'm sure they are really trying to make it handle like an RV while fitting into the regulation which is causing delays.
And it doesn't really matter who said what. If it is true its true. I will put my reputation on the line and say that I trust the individuals I was talking with. So consider it credible. How does that effect your decisions? It shouldn't at all. So what if the sales are down, a few people have left, Van isn't hanging around as much as he used to. There are many other market drivers that could be causing this.
They live and die by creating great airplanes that fly better and are cheaper than anything else on the market. And what does 40% decrease in sales mean? Is that from last year this time, or off their forecast? Who is considered a key employee? I think everyone from Van to the janitor would be a key employee.
I honestly believe that their sales are down. My observation from Oshkosh this year is that the "middle class" is going away. And I consider all of Van's current planes in that category. The economy the past 5 years has been absolutely incredible. People have made a lot of money in their 401k's, in real estate, and in the growth of their businesses. The baby boomers have money and there are now better aircraft options out there other than Cessna and Piper. Cirrus, Diamond Aircraft, and even higher end stuff like the Eclipse is what people are buying. If your read AOPA much Phil Boyer talks about how women have changed the spending habits of the family household. They want to take care of the family first and if they do want a plane, they want planes with a parachute. So who becomes the leader in aircraft sales? Cirrus. The two markets that are growing are LSA and the high end market ($600,000 - $2,000,000). There are 600,000 licensed pilots and that number is not changing very quickly.
I think Van's will do a great job in the experimental LSA market but my feeling is that most LSA buyers don't care about the difference between $50,000 and $100,000. They are not price sensitive in that range. So who is going to win again? I think companies like the Cessna and Cirrus LSA will dominate this market.
Van's competitive advantage has been performance and a great price. If consumers are not price sensitive and performance is now dictated by regulation, I don't see them dominating the LSA market. This is just my feeling when I think about the market and the consumer. Because of this I can see why there may some confusion in the Van's RV camp right now. They will always have the best 2 place and 4 place homebuilt aircraft in my mind but the evolution must continue or another company will improve and take over. The LSA market has always been an area that Van approached with great caution since it really opens new doors and redefines their value proposition.
So what is the solution? They should separate the two companies. I think the demographics of the current RV consumer and the RV-12 consumer are quite different. They also must have a great looking, value priced aircraft and offer an option of purchasing a "turn key" aircraft. To me, Van's means aerobatic capable aircraft. Why would they not make their LSA aerobatic then or at least offer two wings designs? They need to compare their LSA to the other LSA's and say, ours is easier to build, cheaper than the other experimental (or priced comparable to the production models), and handles better.
Because of a certain level of saturation in the current number of private pilots, and the unknown LSA market growth potential and needs, coupled with a transition of Van passing the torch which causes a shift in the culture, there are bound to be some issues.
They have a lot of momentum that will help but if I were the CEO I would be watching out for the focused LSA company and not get too distracted away from what got them where they are today.
