ADSB poll!

Caught in the desert vortex heat down in north Texas I am pondering the Future of ADSB. So let's take a ADSB Poll. As we get closer to the 2020 date I suspect only about 8% of GA will have the equipment on board. How will the FAA in force this FAR? Underneath the class B airspace around DFW there has to be at least 30 uncontrolled airports including live on fields that are private. Per AOPA there are at least 81,564 certified, piston-powered, fixed-wing aircraft that are valued at $40,000 or less. How many of these airplanes will pay the fee to install the equipment? How will the FAA catch the violators when they land at uncontrolled fields as they fly under Class B airspace? Logistically it seems overwhelming for the FAA. Will they use software to single out installed ADSB equipment that doesn't pass muster for violation letters? There was a previous thread where a FAA representative had to make 400 phone calls because of a change in policy for January 2016. I can imagine a software cliche where 5000 phone calls will have to be made. 2020 is going to be the ADSB WILD WEST. Oh and let's throw in a few drones cruising around the area to!

I can't think of a good answer that wouldn't lead to this thread violating rule number 3.

Enforcement under class B will be easy: an inspector will just sit at the airport with monitoring equipment, and hand out tickets to everyone who taxis in and is not in compliance.
Enforcement in class E above 10000' will be harder. Some renegades will turn off their transponder (if caught, they'll claim the CB popped and they didn't catch it) or at least their mode C. So the effect will be to make flying less, not more, safe.

I believe there will be lots of planes that won't be flying anymore and those that comply will someday see pay to play from ADSB tracking.

With the purchase of Dynon's GPS 2020 puck I should be compliant when my bird finally flies. I won't have the ADSB-in benefits, but I will be ADSB-out compliant. So, it seems I have it easy.

Others I have spoken to are still holding out for a cheap solution by 2020. Those with "inexpensive" certified planes have told me a couple things, none of which were buying anything new: sell or not fly in airspace requiring ADSB-out.

I personally think there will be a big hit to businesses in and under C and B airspace, and when they realize what will happen, rules may change before 2020.

I'll take option"E - I'm waiting for my EFIS vendor to provide a solution."

The whole ADSB requirement is BS! The idea that a J3 Cub can fly in airspace that a transponder equipped airplane cannot us garbage!

To add to the pile, I spoke to a friend at NASA the other day and he said they proposed a cheaper solution but the FAA rejected it. His reasoning was "It wasn't invented here." If that is true, what a pile of garbage!

The other issue I have is with Mode S transponders. It is just a matter of time until the FAA starts using their stored data of our flights to start busting people.

I think that the regulations will be written that support some sort of standalone solution (such as the "puck" mentioned above) for all part 91 aircraft before the timeline runs out. Things like this were not available when the mode c conversion went around so there really isn't a precedent. I think the only thing holding it back is regulation and I think 5 years is "probably" enough for the FAA to work something out. If that ever happened, we'll probably see solutions in the $500-$2000 range that you can simply plant on your windshield.

Jetguy said:

As we get closer to the 2020 date I suspect only about 8% of GA will have the equipment on board.

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According to the FAA, as of May 2015, 11,000 GA aircraft were equipped with ADS-B, and that is increasing at a rate of about 700 aircraft per month. Given there are about 150,000 flying GA airplanes right now, we're already at 7%. Simple linear math shows that 120,000 of the 150,000 GA aircraft will be equipped on Jan 1, 2020, or about 80%.

Looks like all our troubles are over... Google to the rescue: http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Google-Getting-Into-ADS-B-223821-1.html

dynonsupport said:

According to the FAA, as of May 2015, 11,000 GA aircraft were equipped with ADS-B, and that is increasing at a rate of about 700 aircraft per month. Given there are about 150,000 flying GA airplanes right now, we're already at 7%. Simple linear math shows that 120,000 of the 150,000 GA aircraft will be equipped on Jan 1, 2020, or about 80%.

Click to expand...

As the installation rate accelerates, which I feel it will, then the final amount might exceed 90%.

jcaplins said:

With the purchase of Dynon's GPS 2020 puck I should be compliant when my bird finally flies. I won't have the ADSB-in benefits, but I will be ADSB-out compliant. So, it seems I have it easy.

Click to expand...

When somebody figures out how to get the DYNON GPS-2020 puck to talk to an ES transponder (with a 337) then an "inexpensive" solution will be available for the many certificated aircraft out there.

FasGlas said:

Looks like all our troubles are over... Google to the rescue: http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Google-Getting-Into-ADS-B-223821-1.html

Click to expand...

Oh goody! Every target showing on my traffic display will have an ad attached to it.

dynonsupport said:

According to the FAA, as of May 2015, 11,000 GA aircraft were equipped with ADS-B, and that is increasing at a rate of about 700 aircraft per month. Given there are about 150,000 flying GA airplanes right now, we're already at 7%. Simple linear math shows that 120,000 of the 150,000 GA aircraft will be equipped on Jan 1, 2020, or about 80%.

Click to expand...

Well, that pretty much jives with the stats in this poll.

Let's say that some of the people in the third category don't implement on time. It wouls bring the current 95 percent down to the 80 or so as planned by the FAA.

I dare say that we experimenters can implement faster than your typical GA driver, so we may wait longer?

There also might be an extension come that time, depending on how many installations are pending.

Me, I am sitting this one out a while. I think there are lots on good products yet to be released.

CJ